Markov模型在合肥市疟疾发病趋势预测中的应用  

Application of Markov model in forecasting of malaria incidence in Hefei city

作　　者：樊雯婧[1] 陆群 邹立巍[1] 王汉永[1] 刘婷[1] 丁承辉[1] 任征[1] 戴瑞雪[1] 翟金霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学公共卫生学院劳动卫生与环境卫生学系,安徽合肥230032 [2]合肥市疾病预防预防控制中心消地科,安徽合肥23006

出　　处：《中国热带医学》2013年第7期819-821,共3页China Tropical Medicine

基　　金：合肥市2010年度第一批科技计划项目(No.[2011]25号)

摘　　要：目的探讨Markov模型预测合肥市疟疾发病率的可行性,为全市的疟疾防治工作提供科学依据。方法应用Excel软件对合肥市1990～2010年疟疾发病率建立Markov模型,预测合肥市2011～2012年的疟疾发病率。结果利用建成的Markov模型预测合肥市2011～2012年疟疾发病率均在1/10万～3.5/10万之间,而2011年和2012年实际发病率分别为0.13/10万和0/10万,预测结果与实际情况不符。结论本次模拟的Markov模型不适合预测合肥市疟疾的发病情况。Objective To predict the yearly incidence trend of malaria in Hefei city by using the Markov model and provide scientific evidence for making malaria control measures.Methods The Markov model based on the yearly malaria incidence of Hefei city from 1990 to 2010 was constructed with Excel software. The incidence rates of malaria in 21 years were divided into 4 states and Markov model was applied on the prediction of epidemic trend of malaria in Hefei city in the next 2 years. Results The morbidity rates of malaria will be within 1-3.5/100000 in Hefei city from 2011 to 2012. Conclusion The findings shows that Markov model seems not be an appropriate model for prediction of the future incidence trend of malaria in Hefei city. In 2011,the actual incidence rates was 0.13/100000 ,and zero in 2012.The prediction is not coincident with the actual situation.

关 键 词：MARKOV模型 疟疾 发病率 预测 

分 类 号：R513.3[医药卫生—内科学]