Statistical Guidance on Seasonal Forecast of Korean Dust Days over South Korea in the Springtime  

作　　者：Keon Tae SOHN 

机构地区：[1]Pusan National University

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2013年第5期1343-1352,共10页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the project "Development and Application of the Techniques on Asian Dust Monitoring and Prediction" of National Institute of Meteorological Research/Korea Meteorological Administration in 2011

摘　　要：This study aimed to develop the seasonal forecast models of Korean dust days over South Korea in the springtime. Forecast mode was a ternary forecast （below normal, normal, above normal） which was classified based on the mean and the standard deviation of Korean dust days for a period of 30 years （1981-2010）. In this study, we used three kinds of monthly data： the Korean dust days observed in South Korea, the National Center for Environmental Prediction in National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data for meteorological factors over source regions of Asian dust, and the large-scale climate indices offered from the Climate Diagnostic Center and Climate Prediction Center in NOAA. Forecast guidance consisted of two components; ordinal logistic regression model to generate trinomial distributions, and conversion algorithm to generate ternary forecast by two thresholds. Forecast guidance was proposed for each month separately and its predictability was evaluated based on skill scores.This study aimed to develop the seasonal forecast models of Korean dust days over South Korea in the springtime. Forecast mode was a ternary forecast （below normal, normal, above normal） which was classified based on the mean and the standard deviation of Korean dust days for a period of 30 years （1981-2010）. In this study, we used three kinds of monthly data： the Korean dust days observed in South Korea, the National Center for Environmental Prediction in National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data for meteorological factors over source regions of Asian dust, and the large-scale climate indices offered from the Climate Diagnostic Center and Climate Prediction Center in NOAA. Forecast guidance consisted of two components; ordinal logistic regression model to generate trinomial distributions, and conversion algorithm to generate ternary forecast by two thresholds. Forecast guidance was proposed for each month separately and its predictability was evaluated based on skill scores.

关 键 词：Korean dust days ternary forecast logistic regression NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data largescale climate indices 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]