中国区域工业碳排放空间计量研究  

Spatial Econometric Study of China's Regional Industrial Carbon Emissions

作　　者：肖宏伟[1] 易丹辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2013年第8期1-11,共11页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金)资助项目"中国节能减排空间结构优化研究"(12XNH156);国家科技部重点基础研究发展计划项目"气候变化对社会经济系统的影响与适应策略"(2012CB955700)

摘　　要：以STIRPAT模型为理论基础,从区域层面构建了工业碳排放驱动因素的扩展STIRPAT模型,运用空间杜宾模型实证考察了各驱动因素对区域工业碳排放规模和碳排放强度的影响;同时,运用时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)实证考察了各驱动因素对区域工业碳排放规模和碳排放强度影响的时空差异。实证结果表明,区域间工业碳排放具有一定的示范作用,驱动因素通过直接和间接途径影响碳排放,除能源强度、能源价格、对外开放因素外,其他影响因素均表现出显著性。因此,要实现区域工业碳减排,必须充分考虑区域工业空间相关性、异质性和外溢性,适当扩大低碳工业投资规模,完善工业能源消费结构,优化产业结构,加快工业行业技术进步,有效规划区域工业碳排放,实现区域工业碳减排的良性循环。In this paper,the authors consider a STIRPAT model in studying the driving factors of industrial carbon emissions regionally.A spatial Durbin model is used to reveal the influences on the scale and intensity of regional industrial carbon emissions caused by different factors,and Space-Time Geographically Weighted Regression Model（GTWR）is used to reveal the temporal and spatial differences on the scale and intensity of regional industrial carbon emissions caused by different factors.Through real data analysis,the authors find that regional industrial carbon emissions play an exemplary role;driving factors impact carbon emissions both directly and indirectly;in addition to the energy intensity,energy prices,the level of opening up,other factors have shown significant.In order to achieve regional industrial carbon emission reductions need to take full account of the regional industrial space,heterogeneity and spillover appropriate to expand the scale of investment in low-carbon industry,optimize the industrial structure of energy consumption,optimize the industrial structure,increase the technological advances of the industrial sector,effective planning regional industrial carbon emissions,carbon emission reduction of regional industrial virtuous circle.

关 键 词：工业碳排放 空间杜宾面板数据模型 空间外溢性 时空地理加权回归(GTWR) STIRPAT 

分 类 号：F062.3[经济管理—政治经济学]