Review of the uncertainty analysis of groundwater numerical simulation  

作　　者：WU JiChun ZENG XianKui 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering,State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2013年第25期3044-3052,共9页

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Fundation of China (41172207, 41071018, 41030746, 40725010 and 40730635)

摘　　要：Groundwater system is a complex and open system, which is affected by natural conditions and human activities. Natural hydrological processes is conceptualized through relatively simple flow governing equations in groundwater models. Moreover, observation data is always limited in field hydrogeological conditions. Therefore, the predictive results of groundwater simulation often deviate from true values, which is attribute to the uncertainty of groundwater numerical simulation. According to the process of system simulation, the uncertainty sources of groundwater numerical simulation can be divided into model parameters, conceptual model and observation data uncertainties. In addition, the uncertainty stemmed from boundary conditions is sometimes refered as scenario uncertainty. In this paper, the origination and category of groundwater modeling uncertainty are analyzed. The recent progresses on the methods of groundwater modeling uncertainty analysis are reivewed. Furthermore, the researches on the comprehensive analysis of uncertainty sources, and the predictive uncertainty of model outputs are discussed. Finally, several prospects on the deveolpment of groundwater modeling uncetainty analysis are proposed.Groundwater system is a complex and open system, which is affected by natural conditions and human activities. Natural hydrological processes is conceptualized through relatively simple flow governing equations in groundwater models. Moreover, observation data is always limited in field hydrogeological conditions. Therefore, the predictive results of groundwater simulation often deviate from true values, which is attribute to the uncertainty of groundwater numerical simulation. According to the process of system simulation, the uncertainty sources of groundwater numerical simulation can be divided into model parameters, conceptual model and observation data uncertainties. In addition, the uncertainty stemmed from boundary conditions is sometimes refered as scenario uncertainty. In this paper, the origination and category of groundwater modeling uncertainty are analyzed. The recent progresses on the methods of groundwater modeling uncertainty analysis are reivewed. Furthermore, the researches on the comprehensive analysis of uncertainty sources, and the predictive uncertainty of model outputs are discussed. Finally, several prospects on the deveolpment of groundwater modeling uncetainty analysis are proposed.

关 键 词：地下水数值模拟 不确定性分析 地下水模型 水文地质条件 定性分析方法 开放系统 观测数据 预测模型 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]