融合加速试验及外场使用信息的寿命评估方法  

Lifetime evaluation method with integrated accelerated testing and field information

作　　者：王立志[1] 姜同敏[1] 李晓阳[1] 王晓红[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报》2013年第7期947-951,共5页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

摘　　要：加速试验技术是开展寿命评估的重要手段,它能够在短时间内得到大量的寿命信息,弥补了外场信息稀缺的问题.然而实验室环境并不能完全代表外场使用环境,它们之间存在一定的差异,其结果也往往不能反应产品的实际情况.针对上述问题,提出一种能够综合加速寿命试验、加速退化试验和外场信息的贝叶斯建模评估方法,利用修正因子对实验室和外场的差异进行修正,利用马尔科夫蒙特卡洛方法进行统计推断,从而得到更为精确的外场可靠寿命及可靠性评估结果.最后通过仿真案例对该方法的实施过程进行了说明及验证,并对其精度和敏感性进行了分析.Accelerated testing is an important method in lifetime prediction. It can obtain enough lifetime information in short time. Sometimes, the lifetime information from the laboratory condition and the one from actual condition are different. To solve the problem above, a Bayesian evaluation method was proposed to in- tegrate the accelerated life testing（ALT） data, accelerated degradation testing（ADT） data and field data to- gether. Calibration method was introduced to calibrate the difference between the different conditions, to eval- uate the product＇s real lifetime more accurately. The statistical inference method was carried out through Mark- ov chain Monte Carlo methods. The proposed method was demonstrated through an example, and relevant ana- lyses were implemented.

关 键 词：外场寿命 加速寿命试验 加速退化试验 贝叶斯方法 修正因子 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]