我国货币政策工具对房地产市场调控的有效性研究——基于有向无环图的分析  

On the Effectiveness of China's Monetary Policy Over the Regulations of Real Estate Market——Based on the Analysis of Directed Acyclic Graphs

作　　者：郭娜[1,2] 李政[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学大公信用管理学院 [2]中国滨海金融协同创新中心 [3]南开大学经济学院金融学系

出　　处：《财贸经济》2013年第9期130-136,F0003,111,共9页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：天津财经大学科研发展基金(201302);国家自然科学基金项目"离散选择模型和受限因变量模型的前沿理论与应用研究"(编号:71001054)的资助

摘　　要：在房地产市场调控的背景下,本文采用有向无环图(DAG)技术和基于DAG的预测方差分解方法探讨了我国货币政策工具对房地产市场调控的有效性问题。研究结果表明,我国房地产价格的持续上涨主要源于其自身惯性的推动;在货币政策工具调控效果方面,货币供应量和金融信贷对房地产市场的调控效果比较明显,而实际利率对房地产价格的影响则十分有限。进而得出,在我国以数量机制为主导的货币政策调控体系较之以价格机制为主导的调控体系更为有效的结论,并据此提出了相应的政策建议。研究结论对我国中央银行货币政策有效执行和政府的房地产市场调控具有重要政策启示。Under the background of China＇s real estate market regulation, this paper discusses the effectiveness of China＇s monetary policy over the regulations of real estate market. The discussion shows that, the continuing rise of the real estate price results from its own inertia＇s propulsion; money supply and financial credit have better regulating effects than actual interest rate. Then this paper summarizes that, compared with the one dominated by price mechanism, the controlling system giving prior to quantitative mechanism is more effective. The conclusion has important policy implications to the effective implementation of China＇s monetary policy and regulation of real estate market.

关 键 词：货币政策工具 房地产市场调控 有向无环图 预测方差分解 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] F830.3