基于输入随机变量离散数据的概率潮流计算方法  

A Probabilistic Load Flow Calculation Method Based on Discrete Data of Input Random Variable

作　　者：蔡德福[1] 石东源[1] 李高望[1] 陈金富[1] 

机构地区：[1]强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室(华中科技大学),湖北省武汉市430074

出　　处：《电网技术》2013年第9期2474-2479,共6页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家863高技术基金项目(2011AA05A101;2011AA05A109);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2009CB219701);国家自然科学基金项目(50937002);南方电网公司科技项目(CSG[2013]0301ZD1)~~

摘　　要：基于实测离散数据,对风电场的出力特性进行了研究,对比分析了传统风电场出力建模方法的准确性。针对现有基于拉丁超立方采样的蒙特卡罗仿真法要求已知输入随机变量的累积分布函数这一情况,提出了一种基于输入随机变量离散数据的概率潮流计算方法。以基于简单随机采样的蒙特卡罗仿真法计算结果为基准,在加入风电后的IEEE 57节点系统上对所提方法的有效性进行了验证。仿真结果表明:所提方法是有效的,该方法具有计算速度快、精度高和稳健性好的优点,具有较好的工程实用价值。Based on measured discrete data the output characteristics of wind farm is researched, and the contrastive analysis on accuracies of traditional modeling methods for wind farm output is performed. In allusion to the situation that in existing Latin hypercube sampling based Monte Carlo simulation method the cumulative distribution function should be known, a probabilistic power flow calculation method based on discrete data of input random variable is proposed. On the basis of results of Monte Carlo simulation based on simple random sampling, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by IEEE 57-bus system connected with a wind farm. Simulation results show that the proposed method is effective and possesses advantages such as fast calculation, high accuracy and satisfied robustness, so it is available for engineering practice.

关 键 词：风电场出力 概率潮流 拉丁超立方采样 蒙特卡罗仿真法 

分 类 号：TM74[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]