考虑风电出力概率分布的电力系统可靠性评估  

Power Grid Reliability Assessment Considering Probability Distribution of Wind Farm Power Output

作　　者：黄海煜 于文娟 

机构地区：[1]国家电网华中电力调控分中心,湖北省武汉市430077

出　　处：《电网技术》2013年第9期2585-2591,共7页Power System Technology

摘　　要：由于风电出力的波动性,大规模风电并网会对电力系统的可靠运行带来影响。基于风速威布尔分布和单台风电机组功率特性,建立了考虑机组强迫停运率的风电场可发出力概率模型,模型能够反映风电场出力的随机性。同时,研究了电力系统可靠性指标随风电场可发出力的变化趋势,在此基础上,考虑到传统单一可靠性指标的不足,对含风电场电力系统的可靠性指标概率分布情况进行研究,求得风电场接入电网产生的风险价值和条件风险价值指标,为风电场的规划和运行提供基础。Grid-connection of large-scale wind farm brings affect on reliability of power grid due to the fluctuation of wind power output. Based on Weibull probability distribution of wind velocity and output characteristics of single wind power generating unit, a probabilistic model of possibly generated power of wind farm, in which the forced outage rate of units are taken into account, is established and this model can reflect the randomness of wind farm power output. Meanwhile, the tendency of power grid reliability indices varying with the variation of possibly generated power of wind farm is researched. On this basis, considering the defect of traditional single reliability index, the probabilistic distribution of reliability indices of power grid containing wind farm is researched to obtain the indices for the value at risk （VaR） and the conditional value at risk （CVaR） due to grid-connection of wind farm to offer foundation for the planning and operation of wind farms.

关 键 词：电力系统 风电场 可靠性评估 风险价值 概率 分布 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]