基于水文效应的城市增长边界的确定——以镇江新民洲为例  

The Urban Growth Boundary Determination Based on Hydrology Effect: Taking Xinminzhou as An Example

作　　者：徐康[1] 吴绍华[1] 陈东湘[2] 戴靓[1] 周生路[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210093 [2]南京大学金陵学院,江苏南京210089

出　　处：《地理科学》2013年第8期979-985,共7页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41001047)资助

摘　　要：城市增长边界(UGB)是城市增长管理、控制城市无序蔓延的重要工具,但如何科学定量划定城市增长边界一直是一个技术难题。针对目前城市增长边界定量划定研究的不足,提出一种基于城市水文效应,适用于城市内涝易发区的城市增长边界划定方法。该方法整合了元胞自动机(CA)模型与区域水文模型(SCS),通过CA模型预测城市不透水面积的扩张范围与形态,并以此作为城市水文模型的参数,评估城市淹水面积的比例及风险,最后根据风险水平确定城市增长边界。以镇江新民洲为例,实证研究了该地区的城市增长边界的合理划定,研究发现该区域城市扩张规模控制500 hm2之内,城市在最大降雨条件下城市积水面积的风险水平能有效降低。研究结果可为新民洲的水文风险控制及城市规划提供依据,同时可为其他城市增长边界划定提供方法参考。Urban growth boundary（UGB） is an important tool to manage urban growth and control cities sprawl,but how to identify scientifically the urban growth boundary for a city has always been a technical problem.In order to address this issue,this article developed an approach to determine the urban growth boundary based on the hydrological risk.This method combines the Cellular Automata Model（CA） and Soil Conservation Service Model（SCS）.CA model is used to simulate the city expansion in different scenarios.Impervious area is extracted from CA simulation results,which is as the key parameters of the SCS model.the SCS model is use to assess the inudation area and hydrological risk.Finally,urban growth boundary is determined based on controlling hydrological risk in certain scale.This research took Xinminzhou,Zhenjiang City as an example to identify the urban growth boundary.The results showed that the inundation area was up 15%,28%,43%,56% and 62% of total area respectively,when the city simulated in different scenarios of 184 hm2,300 hm2,405 hm2,494 hm2and 572 hm2.Under the probable maximum precipitation,in order to reduce inundation risk in the city,It was suggested that the urban should be controlled within 500 hm2 based on comprehensive analysis.The approach integrating the CA and SCS model provides an useful tool to determine UGB,and decision-making on hydrological risk control and urban planning.

关 键 词：城市增长边界 CA模型 水文过程模型 城市用地 

分 类 号：TU984.11[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]