美国对华贸易政策抑制了中国劳动力就业吗?——基于奥巴马对华贸易政策的分析  

Does U.S. Trade Policy toward China Deter China's Employment?:An Analysis based on Obama's Trade Policy toward China

作　　者：赵德昭[1] 许和连[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2013年第9期62-67,89,共6页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(10BJL040);国家自然科学基金面上项目(70879039);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-09-0337);2012年湖南省博士研究生科研创新项目(CX2012B133)资助

摘　　要：奥巴马执政以来推行兼具贸易自由化和贸易保护的"实用主义的贸易政策",其对华贸易保护政策效应的日益显现也对中国劳动力就业产生重要的影响。基于幼稚产业论的短期分析发现,奥巴马政府对劳动密集型产业进行贸易保护,短期内使美国劳动密集型制造企业的生产可能性边界向外扩张并引起就业规模扩大,而中国劳动密集型产业发展和就业面临较大负面冲击。对中美劳动力市场的长期分析发现,奥巴马政府单方面实行贸易保护政策将造成国内消费市场萎缩和失业人数增加,而中国劳动力就业数量不降反升。面对奥巴马政府贸易保护政策和"再工业化"战略的冲击,中国政府部门应与美国积极开展战略经济对话并鼓励国内企业通过"走出去"增加国际竞争力,最终实现外贸发展方式转变和产业结构优化升级。The 'pragmatic trade policy' that Obama promotes since he came to power has the characteristics of both trade liberalization and protection,and Obama's trade protection policy toward China apparent an important impact on China's employment.Shortterm analysis based on infant industries theory found that,Obama's trade protection policy on labor-intensive industries leads to the outspread of production possibility frontier of labor-intensive manufacturing enterprises and the expansion of employment,but China's labor-intensive industries and employment face greater negative charge.The long-term analysis of the labor market between China and the United States found that,Obama's trade protection policy toward China will bring about the shrinkage of domestic consumer market and the increase of unemployment in U.S.,while the number of China's employment will rise.Facing to the negative charge of Obama's trade protection policy and 'Re-industrialization' strategy,Chinese government should conduct strategic economic dialogue with the U.S.,and actively encourage domestic enterprises to increase international competitiveness by 'going out',in order to complete the development mode of China's foreign trade and upgrading industrial structure.

关 键 词：贸易保护政策 劳动力就业 "再工业化"战略 中美战略经济对话 

分 类 号：F249.21[经济管理—劳动经济] F752.02[经济管理—国民经济]