天然气管网系统风险评估  

Risk assessment of natural gas pipeline networks

作　　者：尤秋菊[1,2] 樊建春[1] 朱伟[2] 白永强[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京),北京102249 [2]北京城市系统工程研究中心,北京100089 [3]北京市劳动保护科学研究所,北京100054

出　　处：《油气储运》2013年第8期834-839,共6页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"非常规突发事件应急处置的全过程动态评估模型";91024027;国家科技支撑计划项目"安全保障型城市的评价指标体系与评价系统研发";2011BAK07B00-03

摘　　要：为了更加客观地定量评估天然气管网系统风险,以北京市天然气管网系统为例,深入分析了引起管网事故的原因,对事故进行统计分析,建立了天然气管网系统风险评估指标体系。在对事故可能性的评估中,结合天然气管网本身参数设计和周围环境特点,通过对管道与管网的可靠性分析,实现对事故可能性的修正;在对后果严重程度的评估中,引入管网事故风险的承受能力和控制能力,对天然气管网脆弱性进行分析,实现了对后果严重程度的修正。对事故可能性和后果严重程度分级后,通过风险矩阵可以计算出天然气管网系统的风险等级。In order to realize more objective quantitative risk assessment of natural gas pipeline network systems, this paper takes the natural gas pipeline network systems in Beijing as a case, thoroughly analyzes the possible factors causing pipeline network accidents, statistically analyzes the accidents, and establishes a risk assessment index system for natural gas pipeline network systems. In accident probability assessment, the accident probability is modified based on reliability analysis on pipelines and pipeline networks and integrated with designed parameters of natural gas pipeline networks and the characteristics of the surrounding environments, and in consequences severity assessment, risk tolerance and control capacity of pipeline networks accidents is included, vulnerability analysis of natural gas pipeline networks is finished, and correction of consequence severity is finally made possible. After accident probability and consequence severity is classified, the risk level of a natural gas pipeline networks is calculable relying on risk matrix. （9 Tables, 11 References）

关 键 词：天然气管网 风险评估 可靠性分析 脆弱性分析 补偿系数 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]