管理浮动汇率制度下货币政策目标模型及应用  

Monetary Policy Targets Model under Managed Floating Exchange Rate Regime and Its Application

作　　者：魏巍贤[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学金融研究所,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2000年第9期1-8,18,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金!( 7980 0 0 19)

摘　　要：应用经济理论和多目标决策分析方法 ,探讨货币政策目标之间的关系 ,首次建立管理浮动汇制下的货币政策多目标模型 .在此基础上 ,应用多种计量经济学方法 (协整、方差分解和脉冲响应分析 ) ,实证研究中国自实现管理浮动汇率制度以来货币政策目标之间的关系 ,并得出具有重要意义的结论 .This paper, for the first time, builds up a multiple objective decision model of monetary policy targets, which shows the behavior of domestic prices can depend on the extent of exchange rate targeting. The long-run relationship between domestic prices, output, foreign prices, the interest rate differential, the exchange rate, and the underlying growth rate are estimated based on China's macroeconomic time series data. We apply a lot of econometric methods, for examples, cointegration, variance decomposition, and impulse response analysis, to analyses the model. The empirical results show that the model established in this paper can explain the relationships of monetary policy targets. At the end of the paper, the policy implications of the results are given as well.

关 键 词：多目标决策 货币政策 浮动汇率制度 中国 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]