基于冰川平衡线高度变化的气候重建模型研究  

MODELS FOR CLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTION UPON GLACIER EQUILIBRIUM-LINE ALTITUDE VARIATION

作　　者：崔航[1] 王杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2013年第4期17-24,共8页Marine Geology & Quaternary Geology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171063);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划-重点支持项目(91125008);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(LZUJBKY-2013-125)

摘　　要：冰川物质平衡线高度(equilibrium-line altitude,ELA)变化的研究是冰川学研究的重要内容,其变化情况将最终决定冰川的命运。与冰川的其他特征(如冰川长度、面积)相比,ELA的变化是气候变化最直接的反应,其变化量常被用于对比不同区域间的气候变化特征差异。基于冰川ELA变化的气候重建的统计学方法,如ELA处气温与降水关系模型、气温递减率模型(Lapse-rate model)和温度指数融化模型(Temperature index melt model),结构简单,能获得较好的模拟效果,但均未能从冰川变化的物理成因来研究影响ELA升降的气候因素,且在数据不足时理论也缺乏说服力;物理方法,如能量—物质平衡模型是基于影响冰川变化的能量因子来探讨ELA升降的机制,其参数较多、计算复杂,但精度较高。不同模型受其本身及冰川类型等因素的影响,适用性及精度差别较大。The glacier ELA（equilibrium-line altitude） is one of the important parameters responding to climate change.Glacier behaviors such as advancing or retreating are controlled by the variations in ELA.In contrast to variations in glacier length or area,variations in ELA respond almost simultaneously to climate change;therefore,it could be used to analyze the characteristics of climate change in different regions.The statistical models of climatic reconstruction based on variations in ELA（e.g.,the model based on the relationship between temperature and precipitation at ELA,Lapse-rate model and Temperature index melt model） have simple structure,and can get better simulation results.However,all of them could not be derived from physical causes influencing the ELA variation（e.g.,climatic factors）.Furthermore,they became limited in use and unconvincing in theory when lacking sufficient data.The physical methods（e.g.,Energy and mass balance model） are based on the energy factor influencing glacier change and related to the mechanism of ELA variation.Although this model has many parameters and is very complicated in algorithm,it could get more accurate results.Due to the effect of glacier types and the limitation of each model,the applicability and accuracy of the different models are variable.

关 键 词：物质平衡线高度(ELA) 气候重建 统计模型 能量-物质平衡模型 

分 类 号：P532[天文地球—古生物学与地层学]