河南省农业科技进步贡献率的测算与分析  

Calculation and analysis on contribution rate of agriculture science and technology progress in Henan Province

作　　者：陈振[1,2] 陈祺琪[1,2] 李君[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,河南郑州450046 [2]河南农业大学创新管理研究中心,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《河南农业大学学报》2013年第4期475-479,共5页Journal of Henan Agricultural University

基　　金：河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(12A630021);河南省教育厅人文社科重点项目(2012-zd-015);国家软科学研究计划项目(2012GXS4D091)

摘　　要：用改进的Cobb-Douglas生产函数,以河南省1985-2010年的农业统计数据为基础,运用最小二乘法(or-dinary least squares,OLS)回归估计出资本和耕地面积的产出弹性.继而运用索罗余值法测算出1986-2010年河南省农业科技进步贡献率,并对2011-2015年农业科技进步贡献率进行预测.结果表明,1986-2010年河南省农业科技进步贡献率为43.81%,其中2006-2010年农业科技进步贡献率最大,达到54.55%,但仍略低于55.61%的物质投入贡献率;预计"十二五"时期可达62.17%～65.44%.Based on the agricultural statistical data from 1985 to 2010 in Henan Province statistical year-book, the paper calculated the output elasticity of capital and agricultural acreage and calculated the contribution rate of agricultural science in Henan province from 1986 to 2010 and forecasted that from 2011 to 2015 by the mean of the improved Cobb-Douglas function growth speed calculation mod- el. The reasuhs are as follows： the contribution rate of agricultural scinence from 1986 to 2010 is 43.81% , but still a bit lower than that of the material input, and that is predicted to be from 62.17% to 65.44% during the 12th five year plan period, among which the aritribution rate of agricultural sci- ence and technology from 2006 to 2010 is the highest.

关 键 词：C-D生产函数 农业科技进步率 经济发展 农业科技进步贡献率 

分 类 号：F326.23[经济管理—产业经济]