一种改进的Logistic模型及其在产业集群中的应用  

Improved Logistic Model and its Application in Industrial Cluster

作　　者：张颖超[1] 焦冠南[1] 熊雄[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学信息与控制学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2013年第18期233-236,共4页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：江苏省社会科学基金项目"产业集聚中政府作用绩效研究"(08EYB018);江苏省产学研联合创新资金--前瞻性联合研究资助项目(BY2011111)

摘　　要：从生物种群Logistic增长模型的视角,假设环境作用对产业集群的容量存在非线性影响。应用灰色关联度方法,以苏州电子信息产业为例,分析政府对集群的各种投资额度与总产值的关联性。将关联度最大的因子融入集群最大环境容量的分析,得到改进的logistic模型。与经典Logistic模型相比,加入政府行为对集群容量的影响,扩大集群容量,提高模型的拟合优度,并在苏州市电子信息产业总产值的预测中,取得良好的效果。Based on Logistic growth equation of biological population, a model is established under the hypotheses that the effects of environmental changes have nonlinear effects on capacities of industrial cluster. The paper applies grey relational analysis, taking electronic information industry of Suzhou as an example, to improve comprehensive analysis ability of the relevance between government investments and total output value. Mainly through further analysis and discussion of the in dustrial cluster capacities with main influence factor, the paper gets the improved logistic model, greatly improving the goodness of original model error. The effect tallies with the fact in the total output value prediction of Suzhou electronic in formation industry.

关 键 词：产业集群 LOGISTIC模型 灰色关联度 电子信息产业 政府 

分 类 号：F426.63[经济管理—产业经济] F224