河南省1961-2012年入汛日期的时空变化特征  

Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristic of Beginning Date of Flood Season in Henan from 1961 to 2012

作　　者：史恒斌[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局.河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气候中心,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2013年第3期23-27,共5页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局业务项目(163000D010C00);河南省气象局气象科学技术研究项目(Z201205)资助

摘　　要：根据河南省100站降水和气温资料,利用REOF分析、M-K检验,小波分析等方法,对河南省入汛日期的时空变化特征进行了分析,得到如下结果:1)根据入汛日的不同,将河南省分为5个不同区域,分别为豫北区、豫东区、豫南区、豫西北区和豫西南区。2)平均来看,豫南区入汛最早,豫北区最晚。豫南区入汛日期最稳定,豫西南区入汛日期最不稳定。3)各区入汛时间分别有2～4 a、6～8 a和8～12 a 3个周期,但是3个周期出现的时间段在各个区域不尽相同。4)各区入汛日期均有提前的变化趋势,豫南区和豫西南区变化最明显,其中豫南区和豫西南区分别通过90%和95%的置信度检验。突变点在各个区出现时间也不同。According the precipitation and temperature data of 100 stations in Henan, using REOF analysis, M-K test and wavelet analysis methods, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of beginning date of flood season in Henan are analyzed. The results are as follows. 1 ） Based on the difference of beginning data of flood season, Henan can be divided into 5 areas. They are North Henan, East Henan, South Henan, Northwest Henan and Southwest Henan. 2）South Henan is the earliest area and North Henan is the latest area of beginning data of flood season. South Henan is the most stable area and the southwest Henan is the most unstable area of beginning data of flood area. 3） The beginning date of every area flood season has 2--4 years period, 6--8 years period and 8--12 years period, but the occur- rence time are different in different areas. 4）The beginning date of flood season of all areas is ahead of time, South Henan and Southwest Henan is the most significant. The South Henan and Southwest Henan respectively by 90% and 95% confidence test. The abrupt change point times are different in different areas.

关 键 词：入汛日期 时空特征 REOF分析 小波分析 Mann—Kendall检验 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]