老年人住院依赖性预测模型的研究  

Preliminary study on a forecasting model of hospitalization dependence in senile patients

作　　者：吴亦影[1] 施念玮[1] 倪秀石[1] 邹妮[1] 黄善慧 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学附属第一人民医院老年科,上海市200080

出　　处：《老年医学与保健》2013年第4期243-245,250,共4页Geriatrics & Health Care

基　　金：上海市干部保健局科研软课题（编号：2011GB12）

摘　　要：目的建立住院依赖性的预测模型，探讨住院依赖性发生的影响因素。方法收集167例老年科住院患者的资料，采用非条件Logistic回归分析，筛选产生住院依赖性的影响因素，建立预测模型，并对预测模型进行评价。结果构建的Logistic回归模型为Logit（P）=LnLP／（1-P）]=-11．131＋2．640X2＋1．853 X4＋2．152 X5＋1．866 X7-1．213 X10-1．748X16。该模型预测住院依赖性的灵敏度71．9％，特异度91．2％，准确度为83．8％。结论年龄、婚姻状况、同住者、合并症、生活自理能力和焦虑抑郁状态影响住院依赖性的发生，本研究得到的Logistic回归模型对临床工作有一定参考价值。Objective To explore the factors of hospitalization dependence in senile patients and establish a forecasting model for hospitalization dependence. Methods Data were collected from 167 hospitalized patients at department of Geri-atrics. Logistic regression was used to screen variables statistically significant to hospitalization dependence. The forecasting model was checked by returning original materials. Results The equation of forecasting model was： Logit （P） = Ln [P/ （l-P）] =-11.131 ＋2.640X2 ＋ 1.853X4＋2.152X5 ＋ 1.866X7-1.213X10-1.748X16. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the equation were 71.9%, 91.2%, and 83.8%, respectively. Conclusions Age, marital status, lives with, burden of chronic disease, functional dependence, anxious and depressive mood are associated with incidence of hospitalization de-pendence. The model has the potential to be used in clinical.

关 键 词：住院依赖性 LOGISTIC回归 预测模型 

分 类 号：R857.11[医药卫生—航空、航天与航海医学]