中国货币政策的工具选取、宏观效应与规则设计  

On the Instruments,Rule Design and the Macroeconomic Effects of the Monetary Policy of China

作　　者：王君斌[1] 郭新强[2,3] 王宇[4,5] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学财政税收学院,四川成都611130 [2]浙商银行发展研究部 [3]上海财经大学经济学院,浙江杭州310006 [4]上海财经大学工商管理学院 [5]内蒙古大学经济管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《金融研究》2013年第8期1-15,共15页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：西南财经大学“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”;浙江省人文社会科学重点研究基地(金融学)项目;上海财经大学优秀博士学位论文培育基金;上海财经大学小企业融资研究中心;国家社科基金项目(10zd&011);内蒙古自科基金项目(2012MS1006)等的资助

摘　　要：在采用SVAR模型识别货币政策冲击的基础上,本文考察了数量型与价格型两类货币政策工具的调控效果。实证研究发现,(1)货币供给水平政策的实施较为随意,宏观调控效果较差;(2)货币增长率政策具有盯住通胀的规则性,对产出的效应显著而持续;(3)利率政策同时盯住通胀和产出,虽然总体调控效果较好,但是对通胀的影响正负交错。基于中国货币新凯恩斯模型的量化评估得出两点结论,一是相对于数量型货币政策,利率政策更能有效的调控产出和通胀,且不易引发经济波动;二是随着利率市场化改革的推进,利率政策应更多盯住通胀。据此,我们给出了在利率市场化改革进程中,中国有效货币政策的规则设计。Based on China＇s macroeconomic quarterly data, the paper adopts structural vector autoregression （SVAR） model, and applies Narrative method to indentify particular monetary policy shock, then explores the corresponding c effects by impulse response function for quantity - based instruments and price - based instruments. Several empirical facts reach： （a） monetary supply policy is implemented randomly, the ef- fectiveness of which is relatively limited; （b） monetary growth rate policy is implemented by pegging inflation rate, showing significant and persistent effects on output; （c） nominal interest rate rule is pegging inflation and real output gap, showing mixed effects of promoting output and keeping staggered price stability. Furthermore, the paper estimates China＇s monetary policy, and sets up the monetary New Keynesian model, in order to evalu- ate the effectiveness under marketization interest rate, suggesting that compared to quantity monetary policy, the nominal interest rate rule is endowed with more effectiveness on controlling output and inflation, and with less e- conomy fluctuations; and the interest rate policy should mainly target inflation. On this basis, the paper designs effective monetary policy for China＇s ongoing interest rate marketization reform.

关 键 词：货币政策 工具选取 规则设计 SVAR 货币新凯恩斯模型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]