基于线性矩系数图的日降雨量年最大值系列频率分布选型  

Selecting a Probability Distribution for Annual Maximum Series of Daily Rainfall Based on L-moment Ratio Diagram

作　　者：汪明明[1] 马雄飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学建筑工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032

出　　处：《安徽工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第3期318-321,共4页Journal of Anhui University of Technology（Natural Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51208001);安徽高校省级自然科学研究项目(KJ2012Z029)

摘　　要：为提高对暴雨数据的预测精度,探讨城市暴雨频率分布选型,考察线性矩系数图作为城市暴雨分布直观判断工具的可行。以南京市58年日降雨量年最大值系列为例,采用线性矩系数图方法,并配合L-kurtosis的偏差以及K-S检验法,分析5种常的3参数分布函数(即GEV、GLO、LN3、GPA和PE3)的拟合情况,得到计算结果,并绘制线性矩系数图。根据线性矩系数图观判断,皮尔逊III型分布(PE3)拟合最佳,3参数对数正态分布(LN3)次之,该结果与L-kurtosis的偏差和K-S检验法保持很的一致性。结果表明,线性矩系数图作为一种判断工具,应用在国内城市暴雨频率分布选型上有其可行性。To improve the estimation accuracy of rainfall, the distribution of annual maximum series of daily rainfall based on L-moment ratio diagram was investigated. Selecting 58 years rainfall data of Nanjing as an example, the L-moment ratio diagram was plot due to it is useful for goodness of fit applications. L-kurtosis difference and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests were used in 5 distribution functions, GEV, GLO, LN3, GPA, and PE3. These fitting curves were plot in the L-moment ratio diagram. The results show that the PE3 distribution is the best fit for the sample data as judged by the L-moment ratio diagram, second is the LN3 distribution. This agrees with the results of L-kurtosis difference and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. The L-moment ratio diagram is an attractive tool for distribution fitting.

关 键 词：频率分析 年最大值系列 线性矩系数图 皮尔逊III型分布 

分 类 号：TU992.02[建筑科学—市政工程]