重力坝多失效模式系统失效概率计算和老化效应分析  

System Failure Probability Calculation and Aging Effect Analysis of Gravity Dams with Several Failure Modes

作　　者：熊晟欣[1] 胡江[2] 马福恒[2] 李子阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]深圳职业技术学院,广东深圳518040 [2]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水力发电》2013年第9期30-34,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51179066;51139001;51079 086);江苏省杰出青年基金项目(BK2012036);新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助(NCET-10-0359)

摘　　要：为提高混凝土坝系统失效概率的计算精度,研究了基于矩阵积分法的系统失效概率计算方法。介绍了方法的基本原理,推导了系统失效概率和参数敏感性分析的计算公式,利用MATLAB进行编程。将程序应用到某在役混凝土重力坝性态分析中,得到系统失效概率和各个参数的敏感性分析结果,并据此分析了各老化因子对坝体性态的影响,针对性地提出了大坝维护和管理措施。实例研究验证了该方法的有效性和可靠性。此计算方法具有普遍适用性,可用于其他体系的系统失效概率的计算和参数敏感性分析中。To improve the accuracy of system failure probability calculation for gravity dam systems, a system failure probability calculation method based on matrix integration method is studied herein. The basic principles of this improved method are introduced, the equations for system failure probability and parameter sensitivity analyses calculations are derived, and meanwhile, the corresponding calculation program is also developed in MATLAB. The calculation program is used to compute the system failure probability of one existing gravity dam and the system failure probability and the sensitivities of random parameters to the system failure probability are achieved. Based on calculation results, the effects of aging and degradation on system failure probabilities of this existing dam are also investigated and some suggestions on dam maintain and management are presented. The case study shows that this proposed method is effective and reliable, and capable of computing probabilities of general system modes （orevents） efficiently in a convenient manner.

关 键 词：系统失效概率 矩阵法 串并联体系 重力坝 老化 参数敏感性 

分 类 号：TV314[水利工程—水工结构工程]