武功地区气候变化及其对夏玉米单产的影响  

Climate change and its impacts on summer maize yield in Wugong region

作　　者：丁浩[1] 汪志农[1] 尚虎君[1] 张有功 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]宝鸡峡引渭灌溉管理局,陕西咸阳712000

出　　处：《排灌机械工程学报》2013年第2期167-172,共6页Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engineering

基　　金：国家科技重大专项项目(2009ZX07212-002-003-002);陕西省江河水库管理局项目

摘　　要：基于陕西武功站1935—2010年的逐月气象数据及夏玉米产量等资料,采用Mann-Ken-dall法、直线滑动平均模拟法和通径分析法,分析了武功地区1935—2010年各个气象因子的变化特征以及气候变化对夏玉米单产的影响.结果表明:该地区最低气温呈上升趋势,风速、日照时数呈下降趋势;夏玉米生育期最低气温和相对湿度呈上升趋势,最高气温、日照时数和风速均呈下降趋势,变化速率分别为0.116℃/10a,0.006/10a,-0.158℃/10a,-26.707 h/10a和-0.063 m/(s.10a),SPI呈减小趋势,气候朝干旱演变;夏玉米生育期各气象因素能综合其他气象因素的信息对单产产生作用,日照时数对夏玉米单产综合决定能力最高,决策系数为23.09%,降水量呈减小趋势是夏玉米单产增加的主要限制性气象因素,决策系数为-6.73%;通过技术创新等人为因素作用,可在一定程度上缓解气候变化给武功地区夏玉米生产带来的负面影响.Based on the monthly weather data and summer maize yield data in Wugong station from 1935 to 2010, applying the Mann-Kendall method, straight line slipping average simulating method and path analysis method, the changing characteristics of each meteorological factor, and the impacts of climate changes on the summer maize yield in Wugong region were analyzed. The results showed that： the lowest temperatures have an increasing trend; wind speed and hours of sunshine have been decreasing gradually and have reached an extremely remarkable level; in summer maize growth period, the lowest temperatures and relative humidity have been trending upwards; the highest temperatures, hours of sunshine and wind speeds have been trending downwards and have reached an extremely re- markable level. Their changing rates are 0. 116 ℃/10a,0. 006/10a, -0. 158 ℃/10a, -26. 707 h/10a and-0. 063 m/（s·10a）,respectively. SPI is diminishing and the climate is gradually evolving into drought ; in summer maize growth period, each meteorological factor, together with other meteorological factors, can affect individual summer maize yield and hours of sunshine has the most influential effect on comprehensive summer maize yield, the decision-making coefficient being 23.09% ; decreasing precipitation trend is the major restrictive meteorological factor in increasing summer maize yield, thedecision-making coefficient being -6.73%. The negative impacts of climate changes on summer maize yield in Wugong region can be mitigated to some extent by technological innovations and other mea- Sllres.

关 键 词：气候变化 标准化降水指数 夏玉米 单产 武功地区 

分 类 号：S162.8[农业科学—农业气象学]