甘肃省生态足迹与生态承载力动态分析  

The dynamic analysis on ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Gansu province

作　　者：郑晖[1] 石培基[1] 何娟娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2013年第10期13-18,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271133);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(1107RJZA104);甘肃省人口与经济社会;资源环境可持续发展理论研究课题资助

摘　　要：基于生态足迹和生态承载力的理论和计算方法对甘肃省1996-2009年人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力和人均生态赤字动态变化进行分析,并通过灰色GM(1.1)预测模型,对甘肃省2015年、2020年人均生态足迹、人均可利用生态承载力、万元GDP生态足迹进行了预测。结果表明:1)甘肃省1996-2009年间人均生态足迹逐年增大,由1.3835hm2增长到2.2973hm2。人均生态承载力变化不明显,存在生态赤字,且人均生态赤字逐年增大,由1996年的0.4256hm2增加到2009年的1.3515hm2。2)人均生态承载力基本维持在0.9213hm2-0.9579hm2之间,呈缓慢下降的趋势。3)生态赤字逐年扩大,以年均11.46%的速度快速增长。4)预测表明2015年人均生态足迹为3.4732hm2/人,2020年将达到4.7153hm2/人;生态赤字在2015年扩大到2.5355hm2/人,2020年为3.7759hm2/人。针对甘肃省生态现状,建议提高农业单位产量,改善工业发展模式等,走上可持续发展的道路。The research analyzed the changes of the ecological footprint per capita,the ecological capacity per capita and the ecological deficit per capita and the ecological footprint per million GDP of Gansu Province during 1996 and 2009 by the method of ecological footprint and predicted them by GM（1.1）.The results showed：（1）The ecological footprint per capita of Gansu Province had increased year by year from 1.3835hm2 to 2.2973hm2.The changes of the ecological capacity per capita were not obvious,the ecological deficit existed during 1996 and 2009 from 0.4256hm2 to 1.3515hm2.（2）The ecological capacity per capita basically maintained at 0.9213-0.9579hm2,and keeped a slow downward trend.（3）The ecological deficit per capita increased with a growth of 11.46%.（4）The prediction indicated that the ecological footprint per capita will be 3.4732hm2 in 2015 and 4.7153hm2 in 2020.The per capita ecological deficit will be 2.5355hm2 in 2015 and 3.7759hm2 in 2020.In the view of the situation of Gansu Province,the way for improving sustainable development is raising agricultural yield per unit and improving the mode of the development of industry.

关 键 词：生态足迹 生态承载力 生态赤字 甘肃省 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]