区域经济与环境协调发展评价与预测--以新疆阿勒泰地区为例  

Assessment and prediction on coordinated development between regional economy and environment in Aletai,Xinjiang

作　　者：聂春霞[1,2] 刘晏良 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学创新管理研究中心 [2]新疆发展与改革委员会经济研究院,乌鲁木齐830002 [3]新疆发展与改革委员会,乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2013年第10期32-37,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：新疆大学创新管理研究中心项目"城市可持续发展评价研究"(010112C06)阶段性成果资助

摘　　要：文中的目的是深化区域经济与环境协调发展评价研究。以新疆阿勒泰地区为研究样本,在构建区域经济与环境协调发展评价指标体系的基础上,利用熵权法确定指标的权重,构建模糊物元评价模型对阿勒泰地区经济与环境协调发展状况进行了评价,在假定未来经济与环境协调发展态势不变的前提下,构建灰色系统预测模型,对未来经济与环境协调发展状况进行了预测,得到了较为符合现实的结果。The purpose of this study is to deepen the evaluation of coordinated development.Between regional economy and environment.In this research we used Xinjiang’s Altai region asresearch somples.Based on constructing evaluation indicator system of regional economic and environment’s coordinated development,Entropy-right method was applied to determine the indexweights and Fuzzy matter-element evaluation model was used to valuate the coordination degree of economy and the environment of Altai region.It is premised that the future situation of harmonious development between economy and environment is not changed.Gray Systems Approach was used to predict the futuresituation on coordinated development of economy and environment.

关 键 词：模糊物元评价模型 GM(1 1)预测模型 模糊物元理论 新疆 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]