我国环境群体性事件预警指标体系及预警模型研究  

On Forewarning Index System and Early-warning Model of Environmental Group Incidents in China

作　　者：余光辉[1] 陈天然[1,2] 周佩纯[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学资源环境与城乡规划管理系,湘潭411201 [2]温州市公安局交警支队,温州325000

出　　处：《情报杂志》2013年第7期13-18,共6页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金赞助"我国环境群体性事件的创新管理模式与预警机制研究"(编号:10YJCZH203);湖南省社会科学重点项目"产业结构调整污染减排效应的重点行业案例研究"(编号:12ZDB18)

摘　　要：近年来,随着我国经济高速发展,环境受到不断破坏,环境群体性事件成为高速上升的特殊公共安全事件,严重危害了社会的稳定与可持续发展。通过案例调研,研究了环境群体性事件的原因和特点,构建了环境群体性事件预警指标体系,探讨了每个指标的设置原因、作用与影响范围,最后建立了环境群体性事件背景值与环境事故指标相互结合的双层预警模型。研究结论为管理和调控环境群体性事件提供科学依据。The rapid development of domestic economy in recent years brings about a deteriorating environment. Environmental group in- cidents have been enhanced at a high speed into a special type of public security incidents seriously harming the social security and sustain- able development. Through case research, this article investigated causes and distinguishing features of environmental group incidents and constructed its forewarning index system with detailed discussion on the adoption reasons, functions and sphere of influence of each specific index. At last, the article also established a double-deck early-warning model which combines the background value of environmental mass disturbance incidents with its environmental accident index. The conclusion of the research may provide a scientific basis for the man- agement, regulation and control of environmental group incidents.

关 键 词：环境群体性事件 环境事故 预警 指标体系 

分 类 号：G203[文化科学—传播学]