中国省际消费增长差异成因探析  

Study on the Reason of the Consumption Growth Difference among Provinces' Urban Residents in China

作　　者：赵卫亚[1] 袁军江[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学统计与数学学院 [2]浙江工商大学 [3]兴业银行宁波分行零售事业部

出　　处：《统计研究》2013年第8期77-83,共7页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(10BTJ013)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：进入21世纪以来我国城镇居民的省际消费差距年均增长速度明显高于消费水平的增长率。究竟是什么因素导致我国城镇居民省际消费差距不断增长?各影响因素对省际消费差异的贡献如何?本文采用"反事实假说"构造社会发展水平、基础设施、政府行为、消费习惯、对外贸易等的"反事实"省际消费增长率,并以此测算和分析各影响因素对城镇居民内部消费差距的贡献度。研究结论是,省际间的地区经济差异、收入差异是省际消费差距增大的主要原因,基础设施、对外依存度和地方财政预算支出在一定程度上能缩小消费差距。Since 2000, the average annual growth rate of consumption gap among provinces＇ urban residents has been significantly higher than the growth rate of consumption in China. So what are the reasons that lead the increasing consumption gap among provinces＇ urban residents？ And how do these factors affect the consumption gap？ Using counterfactual analysis to construct the counterfactual consumption growth rate of the level of social development, infrastructure, government behavior, consumption habit and foreign trade, this paper measures and analyzes the contribution to consumption gap of urban residents among different provinces. Results show that regional economic disparity and income gap are the main reasons for the increasing gap, and infrastructure, external dependence and local budget expenditure can narrow the consumption gap.

关 键 词：消费增长 省际消费差异 反事实分析 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]