城市道路交通抗拥堵能力模糊评价模型  

Fuzzy Evaluation Model of Urban Road Traffic Capacity of Anti-congestion

作　　者：刘新民[1] 李之鹏[2] 丁黎黎[1] 闫春[3] 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学经济管理学院,山东青岛266510 [2]山东科技大学信息与电气工程学院,山东青岛266510 [3]山东科技大学信息科学与工程学院,山东青岛266510

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2013年第4期114-119,共6页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71001057);山东省博士基金(2010BSE06034);山东科大杰出青年和创新团队项目(2011KYJQ103;2011KYTD104)

摘　　要：为了实现对道路交通抗拥堵能力的识别和定位,为解决城市交通拥堵问题提供参考,本文从城市道路交通抗拥堵能力的影响因素入手,借助大规模样本数据,采用探索性因子分析法,借助SPSS软件构建了城市道路交通抗拥堵能力的三层指标体系,提出了抵抗交通拥堵的4种能力和8项指标;利用vague集的模糊评判思想和层次熵分析法,建立了城市道路交通抗拥堵能力的模糊评价模型.结果表明,交通社会化理念作为本文提出的一项新的、宏观的指标,在抗拥堵能力评估中开始发挥较大作用;实例分析的结果说明了青岛市内七区抗拥堵能力不高的现状,同时验证了vague模糊评判结果的合理性.This paper identifies and categorizes the causes of traffic congestion through the factor analysis method and SPSS. It is beneficial for locating the ability of congestion resistance of road traffic, and providing a reference to solve the problem of urban traffic congestion. With the large-scale sample data, the study starts from analyzing influencing factors of the anti-congestion ability, The index system consisting of 3-level indicators is teased, which also includes four kinds of capacity and eight indicators of resistance to traffic congestion. Then, using vague set of fuzzy judge ideology and hierarchy entropy analysis method, the paper formulates the fuzzy evaluation model of urban road traffic capacity of anti-congestion. The results show that as the new macro indicators, the traffic socialization concept plays an increasingly important role in assessing the anti-congestion ability. The causes of the poor status of the anti-congestion ability are alsoanalyzed for seven districts in Qingdao, China, and the feasibility of the vague fuzzy evaluation results are also illustrated.

关 键 词：城市交通 抗拥堵能力 聚类分析 模糊评价 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]