基于非等间距序列GM(1,1)模型的地下水温度预测  

Prediction of shallow groundwater temperature based on GM(1,1) model for non-equidistant sequence

作　　者：黄景锐[1] 胡安焱[1] 张焕楚[1] 李霞[2] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学环境科学与工程学院,西安710054 [2]长安大学地球科学与资源学院,西安710054

出　　处：《水文地质工程地质》2013年第1期48-52,57,共6页Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology

基　　金：中国地质调查局"西安市地下温度场特征及其变化研究"

摘　　要：地下水温度是地下水源热泵系统设计中的一个重要参数,它关系到热泵系统换热器的选型计算以及整个系统的优化设计,所以在地热井勘探和使用过程中,通过定期监测各层段地下水的温度,预测地下水温度随深度的变化规律,为地下水源热泵设计、运行、成井工艺等提供参考资料,具有非常重要的实用价值。基于灰色理论基础,应用西安市泾河开发区两口观测井30～108m的实测水温作为原始数据,构建非等间距序列GM(1,1)预测模型,预测其128～150m的水温变化情况。结果表明:模拟结果与实际值拟合好,该模型能够较好地预测地下水温度随埋藏深度的变化趋势,是分析地下水温垂向变化趋势的一种新途径。The groundwater temperature, which is related to the selection of heat exchanger and the whole system optimization design, is an important parameter for design of groundwater source heat pump system. Periodical monitoring of groundwater temperature in each layer in the geothermal well prospecting and utilization and predicting the changes in groundwater temperature with depth are very important in providing reference information for design and operation of groundwater source heat pump system and for well completion technology and other processes. Based on the groundwater temperature data measured in depths from 30 to 108m of two observation wells in Xi＇an Jinghe development zone, a GM（ l, 1 ） model for a non-equidistant sequence is established to forecast the change trend of groundwater temperature in depths from 128 to 150m based on grey theory. The result shows that the model can forecast the change trend of groundwater temperature with depth. It is a new method for the study of the vertical change in groundwater temperature.

关 键 词：非等间距序列GM(1 1)模型 地下水温度 趋势预测 

分 类 号：P314.3[天文地球—固体地球物理学]