河南省经济增长与常规能源消费的协整分析  

Co-integration Analysis between Economic Growth and Consumption of Conventional Energy Resources in Henan Province

作　　者：许立民[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学环境与规划学院,河南开封475004

出　　处：《河南大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第4期410-415,共6页Journal of Henan University:Natural Science

基　　金：河南省社会科学规划项目(2011BJJ003)

摘　　要：利用河南省统计年鉴1980-2008年的数据,对河南经济增长与常规能源消费(EC)之间的关系进行实证分析.协整检验表明,河南省GDP和EC之间存在长期协整关系,可以建立长期协整方程和短期误差修正模型;对河南能源长期需求的预测表明,经济增长目标的实现必须有大量的能源为支撑;格兰杰因果检验表明河南能源消费是GDP的格兰杰原因,即河南省能源消费的增加直接导致GDP的增加,但GDP并不是能源消费的格兰杰原因.河南省要实现节能降耗和经济增长的双重目标,政府努力的关键在于转变经济增长方式和调整经济结构.The relationship between economic growth and consumption of conventional energy resources in Henan Province is analyzed empirically,using the data in Henan Statistical Yearbook.The result of co-integration test indicates that there exists a long term equilibrium between GDP and EC,so the text establishes a long-term equation and error correction model.Forecast of the long term demand of energy in Henan Province indicates that the implementation of economic growth should rely on immense amounts of energy.Granger causality test indicates EC is Granger cause of GDP in Henan Province,that is to say,EC leads to GDP directly,but GDP is not Granger cause of EC.So,for the double goals of energy-saving ＆ cost-reducing and economic growth,the key of government’s effort are to change the way of economic growth and adjust the economic structure.

关 键 词：能源消费 经济增长 协整分析 误差修正模型 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：F014[经济管理—政治经济学]