用于风电场功率预测的逐时风速预报  

Hourly Wind Speed Forecasting for Wind Farm Power Prediction

作　　者：白龙[1,2] 吴息[1] 丁宇宇[3] 丁杰[3] 江燕如[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,气象灾害省部共建教育部重点试验室,南京210044 [2]福建省气候中心气候应用与服务室,福州350001 [3]国网电力科学研究院清洁能源发电研究所,南京210009

出　　处：《气象科技》2013年第4期777-783,共7页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：江苏省科技支撑计划项目(BE2010200);江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目(PAPD)资助

摘　　要：为满足风电场精细化风速预报的需要,利用MM5模式的格点输出数值预报产品以及福建沿海地区两座海上测风塔的逐时气象资料,采用逐步回归的统计方法,将MM5数值预报产品与测风塔实测气象资料要素指标值共同引入回归方程,拟合两座测风塔特定高度的逐小时风速预报方程,详细介绍了该方法的实现过程。通过一年的预报效果指标以及15日的独立样本效果检验,结果表明该方法对于逐小时风速的预报有一定的应用价值。To meet refined wind speed forecasting needs for wind farms, using output numerical prediction products of the MM5 model, measured meteorological data of two offshore wind towers around the coastal areas of Fujian, and the stepwise regressive statistical method, hourly wind speed prediction equations for the given layers of these two towers are fitted with both MM5 numerical prediction factors and measured wind tower factors being introduced into the regression equation. The implementation process of this method is described in detail. Based on forecasting performance metrics in one year and the effect of independent sample test for 15 days, the result shows certain value of this method to hourly wind speed forecasting.

关 键 词：逐时风速预报 测风塔 MM5模式 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]