辽西日光温室温度变化规律及温度预测模型  

Temperature Variation Rules and Prediction Model of Solar Greenhouse in West Liaoning

作　　者：张国林[1] 宗英飞[1] 王吉宏 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省朝阳市气象局,辽宁朝阳122000 [2]辽宁省气象局,沈阳110168

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2013年第23期117-122,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：辽宁省科技厅农业攻关项目"辽宁省设施蔬菜新品种选育;引进及配套栽培技术应用推广"(2008209001)

摘　　要：为了设施农业的发展,拓宽农业气象服务范围,减轻低温冷害对日光温室农业生产的影响,利用多年多点日光温室大棚内外气象观测资料,采用相关及温度变化速率分析方法,对日光温室内温度变化特征进行研究并建立预测模型。结果表明,日光温室内气温有明显的日变化和季节变化。不同的天气状况、不同季节产生不同的温变速率,晴天温度速率大于多云及阴天;寒冷期温变速率大于非寒冷期。大棚内温度日变化为"1升2降",季节变化呈U型。日光温室内外温差随着外界气温的下降而加大,12月—翌年2月呈抛物线型变化。应用棚内温度预测模型,预报2012年2月中旬棚内最低温度,预报值平均绝对误差-0.7℃,平均相对误差-11.4%。The paper targets at promoting the development of agricultural facilities, expanding the scope of agro-meteorological services, and reducing impact of chilling damage on greenhouse agricultural production. It made researches on the temperature variation in the solar greenhouse and established related predictive models, in accordance with meteorological observation data inside and outside solar greenhouse collected on multiple monitoring sites over the years, by adopting correlation methods and the temperature variation rate analysis methods. It was shown from the results that there appeared significant diurnal and seasonal changes in temperature of solar greenhouse. At different weather conditions and different seasons, the variation rate varied; the temperature variation rate in sunny days was greater than that in cloudy days; the temperature variation rate in cold period was greater than that in non-cold period; the diurnal temperature variation of solar greenhouse was characterized by ＂ one-increasing-factor ＂ and ＂ two-decreasing-factor ＂ , seasonal change presented a ＂ U-shaped ＂ curve. The inside/outside temperature difference of solar greenhouse increased with decline of outside temperature, showing a parabolic change from December to February next year. The greenhouse temperature prediction model was applied to predicting minimum temperature inside greenhouse in February 2012. The average absolute error of forecast value was -0.7℃ , and the average relative error was -11.4%.

关 键 词：日光温室 温变速率 棚内外温差 预测模型 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]