豫东农区冬小麦生育期气候变化的多时间尺度分析  

Multi-time Scales Analysis of Climate Variation in the Period of Winter Wheat Growing in Eastern He’nan Farming Region

作　　者：李国栋[1] 田海峰[1] 陈聪[1] 刘亚茹[1] 张俊华[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学环境与规划学院,河南开封475004

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2013年第23期180-193,共14页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"豫东农耕区土壤有机碳分布;变化机制及固碳潜力研究"(41101088);河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目"全球变化和都市化双重作用下的郑州城市气候效应分析和模拟"(12A170002);河南大学自然科学基金项目"基于流动观测和BOWENRATIO能量平衡模型的郑州城市气候效应的模拟分析"(2011YBZR034);河南大学资源与环境研究所项目"开封市典型土地利用方式下不同类型土壤有机碳的关系及固碳机制研究"(HD-ZHS-2012-01)

摘　　要：为了研究豫东农区冬小麦生育期内的气候变化特征,预测气候变化趋势,选取豫东地区5个气象观测站1951—2011年的气候观测资料,集成Mann-Kendall、一元线性回归、5年滑动平均、Morlet小波及变异系数等方法,分析了豫东农区冬小麦生育期10月—翌年5月气候的突变事实、变化趋势、变化周期及年际变率特征。结果表明,豫东农区冬小麦生育期内气温序列存在突变年份,主要表现为增温突变;降水序列不存在突变年份,其变化趋势不明显。近60年来气温和降水变化趋势的震荡周期特征复杂,存在多重时间尺度上的嵌套结构。气温序列变异系数普遍较小,降水序列变异系数普遍较大。豫东农区近60年气温升高趋势明显,主要由近20年增温贡献,未来一段时期内气温可能会出现升降温交替现象,但变化幅度较小,总体上呈持续增温趋势,气候变暖对农业生产的影响既有利也有弊,冬春季增温显著一方面有利于提高冬小麦产量,另一方面会加剧病虫害及霜冻干旱灾害的发生。降水变化趋势在60年时间序列上不明显,周期预测显示未来一段时期内降水有增加趋势,年际变率较大,给降水准确预测带来难度,加剧豫东农区旱涝灾情。In order to study the climate change characteristics and forecast the climate change trend during the growth period of winter wheat in eastern He ’ nan farming areas, temperature variation and evolution trend in eastern He ’ nan farming areas under the background of global warming can provide the necessary reference for agricultural development. Using multi-method of Mann-Kendal analysis, regression analysis, 5 years sliding average and Morlet wavelet, the author studied temperature variation facts, trends and variation cycle based on 5 meteorological stations in eastern He ’ nan areas. The results showed that： temperature warming greatly range from October to May in the next year with an increase of mutation year, trend of precipitation was not obvious and there was no mutation year. Shock period of average temperature and precipitation range from October to next year May in the past 60 years had complex variation characters with a nested structure on multiple time scales. The shock cycle characteristics of temperature and precipitation trends in the recent 60 had complex nested structure. Annual temperature was obviously increasing, especially in the last nearly 20 year, and it showed a continued warming trend with a small alternation of heating and cooling in the next period of time. Impact of climate warming on agricultural production had advantages and disadvantages, warming in winterand spring could enhance the yield of winter wheat, and also aggravate the pest and frost drought disasters occurred at the same time.

关 键 词：豫东农区 气候变化 多时间尺度 MANN-KENDALL MORLET小波 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学] P4[农业科学—农业基础科学]