中国M2/GDP偏高深层原因的实证分析  

An Empirical Study on the Causes of China's High M2/GDP Ratio

作　　者：陈溪[1] 靳大力[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州商学院,甘肃兰州730101

出　　处：《西安财经学院学报》2013年第5期39-44,共6页Journal of Xi’an University of Finance & Economics

摘　　要：文章为避免M2/GDP偏高解释的不完整性,通过引入"信贷"变量构建了一个能够反映货币结构、存款货币资产化、货币乘数和GDP/贷款变化的系统性分析框架。首先证明了GDP/贷款值的下降是造成M2/GDP偏高的一个最重要因素。原因是边际资本—产出比率的下降和投资在转化为资本的过程中出现的"沉淀"现象,还有投资乘数的持续走低和贷款余额过度积累所造成的乘数压缩效应,使贷款的边际GDP下降。In order to avoid the incomplete interpretation of high M2/GDP, through the introduction of the ＂credit＂ variables, the paper constructed an analysis framework to reflect a monetary structure, deposit money assets, monetary multiplier and ＂GDP/credit＂ changes. We first proved the dropped ＂GDP/loan＂ value was one of the most important factors causing high M2/GDP. Causes were that the lower＂marginal capital output ratio＂ and the ＂settling＂ phenomenon of the investment. And what make the marginal GDP loans decline are the investment multiplier continues to decline and the compressed multiplier effect caused by a large number of loans in excessive accumulation.

关 键 词：适度货币量 贷款产出效果 贷款的边际GDP 货币结构 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]