中国建设用地与区域经济发展的空间面板计量分析  

Spatial-panel Econometric Analysis on the Relationship Between Regional Socio-economic Development and Construction Land Use in China

作　　者：王静[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁波大学商学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2013年第8期52-58,共7页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71073087)

摘　　要：研究目的:研究省域建设用地规模扩张的主要影响因素,并在考虑空间效应的基础上为进一步完善建设用地跨地区的协调发展提供了参考思路。研究方法:在面板数据中运用空间滞后模型(SAR)、空间误差模型(SEM)及空间杜宾模型(SDM),对2003—2008年间中国大陆的30个省、直辖市、自治区建设用地规模与区域经济发展状况之间的关系进行分析。研究结果:(1)省域建设用地面积与GDP、总人口数和城市化率均具有显著的正向关联性。(2)通过在模型中引入空间内生滞后项与外生滞后项说明一个地区建设用地的增长会驱动邻近地区建设用地的相应增长;而区域GDP的增长则使得邻近地区建设用地规模减小。研究结论:要高度重视GDP、人口、城市化率等因素对建设用地扩张的影响;在此过程中凸显地理空间的重要作用,引导区域间建设用地发展的优化配置。The purpose of the paper is to analyze the relationship between construction land use and regional socioeconomic development of the thirty provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of China,using the provincial data in the period of 2003-2008.It can further provide the scientific basis for sustainable development of regional economy.Methods employed include Spatial Autoregressive Model,Spatial Error Model and Durbin Model based on panel data.Results showed that 1） construction land correlated with GDP,total population and urbanization rate significantly;2） the spatial panel model including endogenous and exogenous spatial lagged terms explained that the expansion of construction land could lead to construction land expansion in the ambient areas.And the growth of regional GDP could result in a decrease of land use in the neighborhood.It is concluded that the factors including GDP,population,urbanization rate should be considered for the possible effects on urban expansion.It is important to illustrate the important role of spatial factors for the rational allocation of construction land development among regions.

关 键 词：土地经济 建设用地 经济发展 空间面板 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]