中国机动车类型变化对道路环境的影响研究  

Simulation Predictions of Changes in the Motor Vehicle Type on the Road Environment

作　　者：郑春燕[1] 郭栋 田厚杰 

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学商学院 [2]交通与车辆工程学院,淄博255049

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2013年第23期6948-6951,共4页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(60174140);山东省高等学校科技计划项目(J12LI02)资助

摘　　要：针对国内外定量评价机动车类型变化对道路环境影响较少的情况,引入生物种群竞争机制的Lotka-Volterra模型建模。使用MATLAB仿真电动汽车与传统汽车在未来30年的发展状况。回归分析了三种排放污染物与传统汽车数量的关系。将二者结合仿真预测了未来30年三种排放污染物排放量的变化,以及排放增长率的变化。结论表明,在2032年左右我国传统汽车数量将不断下降,随之三种排放污染物排放量呈现下降趋势。发展电动汽车对于改善城市道路环境、减少尾气排放有着重要的意义。For quantitative evaluation of domestic and foreign motor vehicle type changes to road situations with less environmental impact,competition mechanism of Lotka-Volterra model of biological population modeling,using MALTAB simulation of electric vehicles and development of conventional cars in the next 30 years is introduced.Regression analysis three kind of emissions pollutant and traditional automobile quantity relations,has forecast the future 30 year three kind of emissions pollutant withdrawal change the two union simulation,as well as emissions rate of increment change.The conclusion indicated that,our country tradition vehicle quantity unceasingly will drop about 2032,presents the drop tendency along with it three kind of emissions pollutant withdrawal.Develops the electric vehicle regarding to improve the urban road environment,reduces the exhaust emissions to have the vital significance.

关 键 词：LOTKA-VOLTERRA模型 传统汽车 电动汽车 排放量 仿真 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]