Carbon Emissions from Industrial Sectors in China:Driving Factors and the Potential for Emission Reduction  

中国工业部门的碳排放:影响因素及减排潜力(英文)

作　　者：国涓[1,2] 刘长信[1,3] 孙平[4] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,大连116025 [2]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,大连116025 [3]山推工程机械股份有限公司,济宁272073 [4]东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院,大连116025

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2013年第2期132-140,共9页资源与生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Fund Program (71171035);National Social Science Fund Program (10zd&010);the National Natural Science Foundation of China Youth Program (70901016)

摘　　要：We use the refined Laspeyres index decomposition method to determine the main CO2 emissions from industry and analyze differences in these over the period 1994-2007. Then we examined the decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic growth and the effectiveness of the implementation of emission reduction policy. We found that output effect is the dominant positive factor for carbon emissions growth in China＇s industrial sectors, and the effect of energy intensity change is the mainfactor affecting carbon emission reductions; the impact of these two factors is respectively 357.20% and -248.67%. The food industry, textile industry and machinery industry show a decreasing trend in emissions, and emissions from the oil industry increased by 217.75%. From 1994 to 2007 and 2000 to 2007, the decoupling index of carbon emissions and the industrial sector was 0.63 and 0.56 respectively. This indicates carbon emissions and economic growth are in a weak decoupling state, and emission reduction policies lack efficacy. These findings can be used in the design of policy priorities for improving decoupling across industrial sectors.本文首先采用修正的Laspeyres指数分解方法,分析了1994-2007年中国工业及分工业部门CO2排放的主要影响因素,解析了差异原因。然后,基于退耦理论深入研究了工业部门碳排放与经济增长之间的耦合状态和减排政策执行的有效性。我们发现,工业产出是中国工业部门碳排放增长的主要正向影响因素,能源强度效应是主要的负向影响因素,它们对碳排放的影响分别为357.20%和-248.67%;食品工业、纺织工业和机械工业的碳排放呈现出递减的趋势,而石油工业部门的碳排放量增加217.75%。1994-2007年和2000-2007年工业部门碳排放的退耦指数分别为0.63和0.56,说明碳排放与经济增长处于弱退耦状态,减排政策的执行还缺乏一定的有效性。上述结果会对工业部门耦合改善的政策制定产生一定的理论意义。

关 键 词：CO2 emission factors decomposition DECOUPLING emission reduction potential 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济] F205F224