服务贸易的就业效应及影响因素研究——基于动态面板数据模型的GMM估计  

Factor Analysis on Effect of Service Trade in China on Employment: an Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Panel Data Model with GMM Estimation

作　　者：舒燕[1] 林龙新[2] 

机构地区：[1]广州中医药大学经济与管理学院,广东广州510006 [2]暨南大学信息科学技术学院,广东广州510632

出　　处：《贵州财经大学学报》2013年第5期83-88,共6页Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"分工组织演化与发展现代产业体系"(项目编号:09CJY043);广东省教育厅项目"国际服务贸易视阈下的广东高等中医药教育改革与发展"(项目编号:2010tjk280);广东省软科学研究计划项目"广东中药产业竞争力的形成机理和评价体系研究"(项目编号:2012B070400003)资助

摘　　要：基于全国省级动态面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计方法,对服务贸易的就业效应及其影响因素进行实证研究。结果表明,服务出口对就业具有正向促进作用,进口对就业具有负向影响,但是出口就业的促进效应大于进口就业的替代效应。第三产业产出增长能够显著促进就业,而工资、国有企业就业人数占比会显著抑制就业,利率影响不显著。如何大力发展服务贸易等由此成为促进就业增长的有力措施。Based on China＇ s provincial data and applying the method of GMM estimation, this paper conducts an empirical study of the impact of service trade on employment. The result identifies that the export of service trade has a positive function of promotion on employment, while import has a negative impact. But the promotion effect of export is greater than the substitution effect of import. In addition, the growth of service output plays a key role in the expansion of employment, while wage and the proportion of employment in state owned enterprise have negative impact on employment. Furthermore, the interest rate has no significant impact on employment. The paper puts forward policies such as developing service trade to improve the growth of employment.

关 键 词：服务贸易 就业 动态面板模型 广义矩估计 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]