基于灰色关联法的地震灾区泥石流危险性评价--以北川县泥石流为例  

GREY CORRELATION METHOD BASED HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF DEBRIS FLOW IN QUAKE-HIT AREA—TAKING DEBRIS FLOWS IN BEICHUAN AS AN EXAMPLE

作　　者：魏斌斌 赵其华[1] 韩刚[1] 张海泉[1] 

机构地区：[1]地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室(成都理工大学)成都理工大学环境与土木工程学院,成都610059

出　　处：《工程地质学报》2013年第4期525-533,共9页Journal of Engineering Geology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2011CB013501)

摘　　要：汶川地震后,地震灾区泥石流具有暴发临界雨量小,规模大,危险性高的特点。在考虑降雨和地震作用下,采用灰色关联法分析北川县72条泥石流沟的泥石流规模、流域面积、主沟长度、流域相对高差、流域切割密度、不稳定沟床比、年均降雨量和地震烈度8个影响因子的权重,在此基础上建立震区泥石流危险性评价模型并进一步对其进行危险性评价。结果表明:影响因子中,年均降雨量和地震烈度所占权重最大;运用本文模型得到的评价结果与刘希林模型基本一致,但危险度值相对提高,其中有7条泥石流沟危险度提高一个等级。After the Wenchuan earthquake,debris flows in quake-hit area have the characteristics of smaller critical rainfall,greater scale and higher risk.Considering the effect of rainfall and earthquake,grey correlation method has been used to analyse the weights of scale,valley area,gully length,basin elevation difference,cutting density, unstable groove proportion,average annual rainfall and seismic intensity of 72 debris flow valleys in Beichuan. Thus a hazard assessment model of debris flow in quake-hit area has been established to evaluate this 72 debris flow valleys.And research results show the following: the weights of average annual rainfall and seismic intensity are greater than the other factors;the evaluation results based on the model raised in this essay are roughly consistent with those given by Liu Xilin.But the risk value improves relatively,and the risk of seven debris flow valleys among those improves a grade.

关 键 词：震区泥石流 灰色关联法 影响因子 危险性评价 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]