太原雾天能见度预报  

Visibility forecast of fog weather in Taiyuan

作　　者：管琴[1] 李青平[1] 黄铃光 李杰[3] 

机构地区：[1]黄南州气象局,青海同仁811300 [2]福建省气象台,福建福州350000 [3]四川省气象台,四川成都610072

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2013年第4期47-53,共7页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：山西省气象局开放式研究基金"山西省高速公路雾的数值预报系统的建设"(SXKKFTQ-20090201)资助

摘　　要：利用中尺度数值预报模式MM5对山西省2009年发生的几场典型雾个例进行数值模拟。结果表明:模拟2 m温度比观测值偏低-2℃左右,相对湿度模拟结果比观测值偏大15%左右,10 m的模拟风速比观测值偏大0—2 m·s-1。山西省雾的预报指标为20 m液态水含量大于等于0.13 g·kg-1而小于0.60 g·kg-1、20—1500 m高度大气层存在逆温层、地面风速小于4 m·s-1。利用太原测站日平均能见度、日平均相对湿度以及空气污染指数进行拟合建立太原能见度预报模型,并利用实测资料订正MM5、CAPPS模式预报误差,给出订正后的能见度预报方程并以两次实例对区域及太原雾天能见度预报表明,该能见度预报模型有一定的适用性。Typical fog cases were simulated by the MM5 model in 2009 in Shanxi province.The results indicate that the simulated temperature at 2 m height is about 2 ℃ low er than the observed one;the simulated relative humidity is about 15% higher than the observed one;the simulated w ind speed at 10 m height is about 0-2 m·s-1 greater than the observed one.The forecast indexes of fog include three conditions in Shanxi province,namely,the liquid w ater content at 20 m height is from 0.13 g·kg-1to 0.60 g·kg-1;there exists a temperature inversion layer betw een 20 m and 1500 m heights;the surface w ind speed at 10 m height is less than 4 m·s-1.A visibility forecast model is established by the daily mean visibility,relative humidity and air pollution index in Taiyuan.The forecast results of visibility by the MM5 and CAPPS are corrected using the observed data,and the revised forecast equation is developed.Tw o fog cases are forecasted using the revised equation,and it suggests that the model could be applied in Shanxi province.

关 键 词：能见度 相对湿度 液态水含量 逆温 风速 空气污染指数 

分 类 号：P457.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]