我国冬季气温与影响因子关系的年代际变化  

Inter-decadal Variability of the Relationship Between Winter Temperature in China and Its Impact Factors

作　　者：李维京[1] 李怡[2] 陈丽娟[1] 赵振国[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2013年第4期385-396,共12页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2013CB430203);科技部科技支撑项目(2009BAC51B05);国家自然科学基金项目(41275073)

摘　　要：利用1951-2012年冬季全国160个站月平均气温以及NCEP/NACR再分析资料和海温、北极海冰等资料,分析了我国冬季气温及其关键影响因子的年代际变化特征,重点研究了关键影响因子对我国冬季气温影响关系的年代际变化。研究表明:我国冬季气温在1985年之前处于冷期,之后为暖期;我国冬季气温异常与影响因子的关系发生了显著的年代际变化,而且影响因子之间的关系也发生了显著的年代际变化。针对这种年代际变化的基本事实,提出针对冷期和暖期中不同影响因子与冬季气温的关系分时段建立冬季气温的多因子回归预测模型,可以反映冬季气温及其影响因子关系的年代际变化特征。正确的预测策略是利用相同年代际背景下预测对象与预测因子的时间序列资料建立预测模型,以确保预测模型中反映的预测对象与预测因子关系的稳定性,进而保持较高的拟合及预测水平。The inter-decadal variation characteristics of winter temperature in China and its key impact factors are analyzed by using monthly temperature data of 160 stations in China, NCEP/NACR reanalysis data, extended reconstructed sea surface temperatures data, and Arctic sea ice extent data from 1951 to 2012, fo- cusing on the inter-decadal changes of the relationship between key influencing factors and winter tempera- ture in China. Results show that the winter temperature in China before 1985 is in a cold period, and then a warm period follows. A significant inter-decadal variability has occurred for winter temperature anoma- lies. The scope and intensity of warming tendency has weakened significantly from 2004 to 2011. The main diagnostic analysis conclusions are summarized as follows. The majority of impact factors of winter temperature anomalies in China shows significant inter-decadal shift from 1970s to 1980s, most of which changes ahead of that of winter temperatures in China, such as Arctic Oscillation （AO）, the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM）, Western Pacific subtropical high （WPSN）, Arctic sea ice cover in Sep- tember, and Nifio3 SST index. But the inter-decadal variability of Siberian High （SH） and the basin-wide SSTA variation in the tropical Indian Ocean （IOBW） has the same pace with that of the winter tempera- ture. The inter-decadal variability of relationship between winter temperature and its impact factors.have changed on temporal and spatial scales. On temporal scale, the relationship between the winter tempera- ture and IOBW index has weakened significantly from cold to warm period. But the influences of EAWM index, SH index and the WPSH area index on winter temperature have strengthened. On spatial scales, distributions of correlations between winter temperatures and affecting factors have changed from cold to warm period. The high correlation coefficient regions between EAWM and winter temperature have en- larged significantly. The correlation coefficient between AO index a

关 键 词：冬季气温 影响因子 东亚冬季风 年代际变化 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]