产业结构变动对碳强度影响的灵敏度分析  

The Sensitivity Analysis of the Industrial Structure Change to the Effect Carbon Intensity

作　　者：张伟[1] 王韶华[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学秦皇岛分校经贸学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [2]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《软科学》2013年第8期46-49,共4页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70773027);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(12YJA790010);黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划项目(11A004);东北大学秦皇岛分校校内科研基金项目(XNB201316)

摘　　要：运用通径分析明确了三次产业比例的相互关系及与碳强度的关系,在此基础上计算三次产业比例对碳强度和GDP的贡献,据此分析产业结构变动对碳强度影响的灵敏度。研究结论表明:第三产业比例、灰因素等是碳强度增长的主要抑制因素,第一产业比例、第二产业比例等是碳强度增长的主要推动因素。在目前灰因素水平下,降低第一产业比例,增加第三产业比例对降低碳强度的贡献最大,优化产业结构可以降低碳强度1.725个百分点,对实现"十二五"规划碳强度目标的贡献为10.15%。This paper analyzes the sensitivity of industrial structure change affecting carbon intensity, with defining the relationship of the proportion of three industries as well as the direct or indirect influence on carbon intensity. The result shows that ： the proportion of the tertiary industry or gray factor has the inhibition effect on the reduction of carbon intensity, while the proportion of the primary industry or the secondary industry can help it. What~ more, under the current level of gray factor, it makes the largest contribution to reduce the proportion of the primary industry, and improve the proportion of the tertiary industry, to reduce the carbon intensity, according to the sensitivity matrix of industrial structure change affecting carbon intensity. By calculating, optimizing the industrial structure can low the carbon intensity 1. 725 percent, and contribute l O. 15% to the achievement of the carbon intensity target in 12th Five - Year Plan.

关 键 词：产业结构 碳强度 贡献 灵敏度矩阵 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F205