基于信息熵的天然气区域市场消费结构演变研究——以大华北地区为例  

Research on the Evolution of Regional Gas Consumption Structure Based on Information Entropy

作　　者：秦云松[1] 张吉军[1] 王小林[2,3] 戴胜[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油化工股份有限公司天然气分公司,北京100120 [2]中国地质大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国地质大学资源环境经济研究中心,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第4期1-7,共7页Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金(11YJC630211);博士后基金(2011M501262);中央高校基金(CUGW090228;CUGW090202;CUG110415);中央高校基金特色团队项目(CUG120120);中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境中心开放基金(2011B014;H2013003B)

摘　　要：目前中国天然气消费结构不合理,市场价值没有得到充分体现,难以在市场中实现合理配置。基于此,将信息熵理论用于天然气区域消费结构演变研究,以大华北地区的北京、山东、山西以及内蒙古等8个省市区天然气消费结构变化为例,深入研究该区域2001—2010年天然气消费结构信息熵变化过程。研究表明:天然气管网网络化、供应主体多元化推动了大华北地区天然气需求的快速增长,2008年以后天然气市场进入快速发展和市场消费结构逐步调整阶段,天然气资源流向由以工业用气为主转向城市燃气、商业和交通运输业等领域,多元化消费结构逐步形成和优化。大华北地区天然气消费结构空间差异性较为显著,天然气消费结构信息熵呈现出由东部向西部逐渐降低的规律,表现东部地区天然气消费承受能力较高,商业、公共服务和交通等行业消费比例进一步提高;而西部地区则由于消费承受力较弱,消费结构趋于单一,主要以工业燃料和化工原料为主,但随着管网完善和供气气源的丰富,城市燃气中的居民消费比例将进一步提高,消费结构逐步优化。China＇s natural gas consumption structure is irrational up to now, the market value is not fully reflected and it is difficult to achieve a rational allocation. Under this situation, this paper introduces the concept of information entropy into the analysis of the gas consumption evolution, and creatively uses the gas consumption data from 2001 to 2010 in the eight major provinces in North China, in terms of Beijing, Shandong, Shan Xi, Inner Mongolia, and so on. The results indicate： （~） The soaring of natural gas consumption in North China has been triggered by the perfection of pipeline network and the diversification of the suppliers. The natural gas market has become expansion and evolved the adjustment of consumption structure since 2008. Meanwhile, the main natural gas usage transfers from industrial to civil, commercial and transportation, to diversify the consumption structure. （~）In China, with the time and space changing from east to west, the information entropy of gas consumption structure decreases. More detailed, the Eastern China shows a high duration with well-developed consumption structure, while the Western presents a weak endurance with industrial fuel and chemical raw materials dominating structure. However, it is predictable that the key natural gas consumption will lie in civil and trans- nortation industry in future.

关 键 词：天然气市场 区域消费结构 信息熵 时空演变 

分 类 号：F407.22[经济管理—产业经济]