基于PDL模型的我国公路建设投资滞后效应研究  

Study on Lagging Effect of China’s Road Construction Investment Based on PDL Model

作　　者：韩雄俊[1] 陆化普[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学交通研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《公路工程》2013年第4期84-89,共6页Highway Engineering

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2007AA11Z202);国家科技支撑计划(2007BAK35B06);中国博士后科学基金资助(2012M510455)

摘　　要：本文基于PDL模型,对我国公路建设投资的滞后效应进行了理论分析与实证研究。在研究我国公路建设投资序列与其对应的产业增加值序列的相关关系上,验证了序列的非平稳性及其协整关系,在此基础上,确定了投资序列对增加值序列的滞后分布结构,并利用改进的PDL模型拟合了基于滞后效应的增加值序列函数。该模型相对一般的拟合模型,具有较高的拟合度,降低了残差的数量级,并且能够在机理层面上解释滞后效应的存在与特征。采用我国公路发展的历史数据表明:我国公路建设投资存在滞后效应,并且随着我国经济的发展,滞后期在逐渐缩短。Based on PDL model,this paper studies the lagging effect of China’s road construction investment through theoretical analysis and empirical research.This paper focuses on the relationship between road construction investment sequence and its corresponding industrial added value sequence and verified the non-stationary characteristics of sequences and their cointegration relationship.On the basis,the study improves the traditional PDL model,determines the lagging distribution structure,and finally forms the added value function.This model has higher fitting degree,and has reduced the residual remarkably compared with the traditional model.The application of historical data indicates that the lagging effect of China’s road construction investment exists,and the lagging period gets gradually shortened with China’s rapid economic development.

关 键 词：滞后效应 公路建设投资 PDL模型 

分 类 号：U412[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]