我国城镇化对商品住房需求的拉动效应研究  

Pull Effect on Demand of Commercial Flats by China's Urbanization

作　　者：杨晓冬[1] 李远[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2013年第4期93-97,共5页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(HIT.HSS.2011.38)

摘　　要：为探究城镇化对我国商品住房市场的拉动效应，从3个方面定性分析了城镇化对房地产市场的影响，采用协整分析方法，建立商品住房需求的拉动效应模型并进行模型检验，考虑到模型内部的短期动态波动，构建了误差修正模型，利用格兰杰因果检验探究了两者的因果关系。通过对1992～2012年间的城镇化水平与商品住宅需求的实证研究，发现我国城镇化水平对商品住宅需求存在一种长期稳定的拉动效应，即城镇化水平每提高1％，会拉动商品住房长期增长3．22％；城镇化水平是商品住宅需求的格兰杰原因；并且这种均衡关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度较慢。In order to analyze pull effect of how urbanization influence domestic demand, this paper researches pull effects of urbanization to commercial flats demand qualitatively from three aspects, then uses co-integration analysis method to establish a model and test the model. Considering the short-term dynamic fluctuation of internal model, an Error Correction Model is built. The model is tested by the granger-causality test. By the empirical study from 1992 to 2012 between urbanization and urban commercial flat demand, we find that there is a long-term stable and pull relationship between China＇s urbanization level and demand of urban commercial fiats： urbanization is the granger-causality of demand on urban commercial flats： the equilibrium relationship from short-term disequilibrium to long-term equilibrium adjustment speed is relatively slow.

关 键 词：城镇化 商品住宅需求 拉动效应 协整分析 误差纠正模型 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]