基于要素替代弹性的节能潜力测算研究  

Research on Measuring Energy Saving Potential Based on Factor Substitution Elasticity

作　　者：韩中合[1] 刘明浩[1] 吴智泉[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学能源与动力工程学院,河北保定071003 [2]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130021

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第9期42-47,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：北京市共建专项资助项目"基于节能潜力的北京市节能减排决策支持系统的研究"

摘　　要：随着能源消耗量的快速增长,能源问题已成为制约许多地区社会经济发展的瓶颈。在解决能源问题过程中,除加大能源供应外,更应注重能源的节约。在开展能源节能工作中,面临的首要问题是准确把握节能潜力的分布和大小,因此,节能潜力测算在节能工作中具有十分重要的意义。要素结构节能潜力是节能潜力中的重要组成部分。大量研究表明,生产要素之间存在替代或互补关系。通过计算区域各行业的要素替代弹性,提出了一种基于要素替代弹性的要素结构节能潜力测算方法,并运用该方法测算了北京市2010年的要素结构节能潜力。测算结果表明:北京市各行业的能源要素与非能源资本要素之间存在微弱的替代关系,能源要素与劳动力要素之间存在替代或互补关系;在假定能源与劳动力价格最大调整幅度分别为5%与10%的情景下,测算得到北京市2010年的要素结构节能潜力为583.72万t标准煤,占当年能源消耗总量的6.85%。由此可知,要素结构节能潜力巨大,通过对生产要素的合理配置,可为区域带来十分可观的节能效果。With the rapid growth of energy consumption, energy problem has become a main constraint in local socio-economic development. Compared with increasing energy supply, energy-saving deserves more attention when solving the energy problem. In the process of saving energy, the most important issue we faced is grasping the distribution and size of energy-saving potential. Therefore, the estimation of energy-saving potential has a great significance in energy-saving project. Factor structure is an important component of energy-saving potential; numerous studies show that alternative or complementary relationship exists between production factors. The paper based on its calculation on the elasticity of factor substitution in each industrial sector, promotes a calculation method on energy saving potential. And it measures the energy saving potential of Beijing in 2010 with the method. The research shows a weak substitution relationship between energy and capital in each industrial sector in Beijing, and a substitution or complementary relationship between energy and labor factor. Assumption that the energy prices will fluctuate within ＋ 5%, and the labor costs within ＋ 10%, the paper works out that the energy saving potential based on factor structure in Beijing in 2010 amounts to 5. 837 2 million tons of standard coal. This accounts for 6.85% of the total energy consumption throughout the year. It can be seen that huge energysaving potential exits in factor structure. By allocating production factors rationally, we have the ability to save considerable energy.

关 键 词：节能潜力 生产要素 替代弹性 要素价格 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]