用电量等维新息递补预测模型研究与应用  

Study and Application on Equal-Dimension and New-Information Addition Prediction Model of Power Consumption Based on the Matlab

作　　者：吴义纯 李淼[2] 李瑞君[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省电力公司培训中心,合肥230032 [2]安徽电气工程职业技术学院,合肥230032

出　　处：《电气技术》2013年第7期39-42,共4页Electrical Engineering

基　　金：安徽省高校省级自然科研项目(KJ2013B016);安徽省高等学校省级自然科学研究项目(KJ2009B158Z);安徽电气工程职业技术学院院级课题(2011ybxm014)

摘　　要：准确预测地区电网年用电量对当地电网发展和电力供给具有重要实际意义,本文应用灰色理论,探讨原始数据预处理技术,还考虑预测系统受到最新信息的影响而发生新的变化趋势,等维递补动态更新预测信息,建立用电量等维新息递补灰色预测模型,基于Matlab平台实现建模预测实际地区电网年用电量,算例表明文中方法是可行的,具有较强的实际应用价值。Accurately forecasting annual electricity consumption of regional power grid has important practical significance for the local grid development and power supply. Using grey theory in the paper, discussing the original data pretreatment technology, considering the new variation trend of system in the influence of the latest information, equal dimension addition and dynamic update of forecasting information is realized, and grey prediction model of equal dimension new information addition of power consumption is built. Based on Matlab platform, the actual electric quantity of regional grid is predicted by modeling, and the example proves that the method is feasible and has certain practical value.

关 键 词：用电量 等维新息递补 预测 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]