农户土地利用行为对退耕还林政策的响应模拟——以陕西省米脂县高渠乡为例  

Simulation of the changes of farmer households’land-use behaviors in response to China’s Grain to Green policy: A case study in Gaoqu Commune of Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province

作　　者：陈海[1,2] 郗静[1] 梁小英[1] 陈姗姗[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,西安710127 [2]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,杨凌712100

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2013年第8期1246-1256,共11页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271103;40901093);教育部人文社科基金项目(10YJC790017);陕西省教育厅基金项目(11JK0744)

摘　　要：作为中国涉及面最广、群众参与程度最高的一项生态工程,退耕还林对区域土地利用变化产生了重大影响。目前对土地利用变化过程和土地利用主体行为的分析研究不足,不能有效揭示宏观农业土地利用变化的微观机理,难以合理解释农户土地利用行为的变化。本文以陕西省米脂县高渠乡为例进行研究,利用经历权重法定量分析了退耕还林政策结束前后不同农户群体土地利用策略的变化;利用构建的农户群体土地利用决策模型,模拟不同政策情景下农户群体土地利用行为的变化及其对区域土地利用变化的影响。结果表明,该模型可以显示还耕和撂荒两种土地利用行为的变化及其空间配置,能揭示造成这种区域差异的微观机理,为分析农户群体土地利用行为的变化、探讨农业政策与农户行为之间的相互作用,提供了可供借鉴的途径。Analyzing the interactions between environmental policies and farmers＇ responses is an important di- mension to understand the sustainability of agro-ecosystems. China＇s Grain to Green （GTG） policy has been the most influential one that has drawn the biggest participation from the farmers in the contemporary history of Chi- na. To what extent the implementation of the GTG policy has affected regional land-use changes and farmers＇ land-use behaviors at the household level in particular, has been a critical issue that concerned by both policy makers and researchers. This empirical study identified how the implementation of GTG policy during 1999-2006 has impacted farmers＇ land-use behaviors, and designed a ＂Farmer Group Decision-Making Model＂ to simulate the probability of land-use change in the case study area of Mizhi County of Shaanxi Province. Ele- vation, slope, and heterogeneous characteristics of the farmer households under study were identified to be the key factors influencing farmers＇ land-use decision-making process and land-use pattern. Classification and Re- gression Tree were used to classify farmer household groups, and Experience-Weighted Attraction learning mod- el was used to analyze the land use behavior＇s change before and after the GTG policy. The results showed that farm households＇ land-use behaviors, namely land reclamation and land abandonment in the study area, has been significantly affected by the GTG program in China since 1999, and the results of simulation in the study showed that possible consequences of land reclamation and abandonment co-exist under all policy scenarios. The spatial distribution and magnitude of land to be affected by such land-use behaviors vary among the villages in the study area. Policy recommendations based on the findings of this study relate to how to protect the effec- tiveness of the GTG program and to improve the efficient use of the under-used farmland. How and to what ex- tent distance and kinship affect farm households＇ land

关 键 词：退耕还林 土地利用策略 土地利用行为 政策情景 陕西米脂 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]