水源地突发水污染公共安全事件应急预留水量需求估测  

Emergency Reserved Water Demand Estimation for Public Events of Accidental Water Source Pollution

作　　者：周晔[1] 吴凤平[2] 陈艳萍[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏警官学院治安管理系,南京210031 [2]河海大学商学院,南京210098

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2013年第8期1426-1437,共12页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目;教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(11YJC630025);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2011B03614);江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究项目;国家自然科学基金项目"最严格水资源管理制度约束下流域初始水权耦合配置方法研究"(4127537)

摘　　要：社会经济发展过程中各种紧急情况下的水资源非常规需求不可避免,要求配置适当的应急预留水量。应急预留水量需求估测是其优化配置的前提和基础。针对应急预留水量需求的特点,提出了基于风险分析的案例推理技术与定额法相结合的应急预留水量需求估测方法:根据故障树法分析水源地突发水污染公共安全事件爆发的18条风险路径,以此作为案例推理特征属性,得出当前水源地突发水污染可能导致的供水中断时间,结合定额标准估测应急预留水量需求量。最后,以辽宁省大伙房水源地为案例说明应急预留水量估测方法的应用过程。该方法可以为今后应急预留水量的配置、储备等提供依据和模型支持。It is inevitable that there is unconventional water demand under different emergencies with the development of economy and society, so certain emergency reserved water should be allo- cated in initial water right allocation. Emergency reserved water demand estimation is the premise and basis for emergency reserved water allocation. According to the particularity of emergency re- served water demand, the combination method of case-based reasoning and quota method is built based on risk analysis. Eighteen risk paths of accidental water source pollution are got by fault tree method and taken as characteristic attributes for case-based reasoning to calculate downtimes of water supply, and then emergency reserved water is estimated with quota standard. Finally, the model is applied to Dahuofang reservoir in Liaoning Province. The estimation method provides ba- sis and model support for emergency reserved water allocation and preservation.

关 键 词：水源地突发水污染 风险 应急预留水量 案例推理 需求估测 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程] TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]