数学模型在全国布鲁氏菌病监测点疫情预测中的应用(Ⅱ)  

Application of mathematical models to forecast for inspection district of brucellosis in China(II)

作　　者：李仲来[1] 吕景生[2] 赵永利[2] 江森林[2] 佟建冬 张士义[2] 吴福林[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学数学系,北京100875 [2]全国鼠疫布氏菌病防治基地 [3]中国兽药监察所

出　　处：《中国地方病防治》2000年第5期273-275,共3页Chinese Journal of Control of Endemic Diseases

摘　　要：根据１９９３～１９９８年布鲁氏菌病全国监测点羊、牛、猪、人的血清学阳性率资料，利用灰色模型，加权平均法和其他方法，建立了数学预测模型。将预测值取算术平均进行综合后，给出了１９９９～２０００年的布鲁氏菌病阳性率预测值。According to the brucellosis serological positive rates of the sheep, ox, pig and man in fifteen National Key Surveillance Points during 1993 - 1998, the grey model, the weighted average model and the other models were conducted to forecast positive rates respectively. Moreover, comprehensive forecast on these models was obtained by arithmetic average. Finally, the forecast values of positive rates in 1999 - 2000 were given respectively.

关 键 词：布鲁布菌病 阳性率 监测 数学模型 疫情 预测 

分 类 号：R516.701[医药卫生—内科学]