石嘴山城市空间扩展的影响因子时空变迁及未来趋势预测  

The Factors' Space-time Change and Future Trend Prediction of Urban Spatial Evolution in Shizuishan City

作　　者：冯斌[1] 陈晓健[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学城市与资源学系 [2]西安建筑科技大学建筑学院

出　　处：《现代城市研究》2013年第9期63-69,共7页Modern Urban Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51178371)

摘　　要：本文立足于宁夏回族自治区石嘴山市的自然基质和转型发展要求,既着眼于全市域,又突破行政界限范围,研究处于复杂发展变动态势下的石嘴山城市用地空间扩展。论文通过对1951-2010年间城市空间扩展影响因子的时空动态模拟以及石嘴山资源枯竭型城市转型进程判定分析,预测得出适宜于未来2015年和2020年的影响因子时空分布。在此基础上,借助于"统计产品与服务解决方案"软件、地理信息系统工具以及成本加权距离等数学方法,对回归预测模型和空间扩散模型进行运算,预测未来一定时期城市空间扩展的规模与方向,从城市自身层面提出石嘴山城市空间扩展的趋势导向,并从宁蒙边界区域层面提出构建两个同城化片区发展的趋势。This article based on the autonomous region of the nature and the transition development request of Shizuishan in NingXia Hui autonomous region, researched the city land space expansion in complex development trend. It not only saw from the angle of urban but also broke through the administrative boundary. The paper forecasted the impact factor time and space distribution in the next 2015 years and 2020 years by the dynamic simulating of impact factor of urban spatial expansion and analyzing city transformation determination process of Shizuishan city. On this basis, by ＂the statistical product and service solution＂ software, geographic information system tools and cost of the weighted distance and so many mathematical tools, regression forecast model and the spatial diffusion model were calculated, the future of urban spatial extension scale and direction were predicted. The paper put forward urban spatial extension trend oriented from a city＇s own level and two city of the trend of the development of the area from the boundary regional levels of Ningxia province and Inner Mongolia.

关 键 词：石嘴山 空间扩展 影响因子 GIS 

分 类 号：TU984.113[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]