2008年6月南方强降水天气分析及TIGGE预报检验  

Analysis of south China rainstorm in June 2008 and evaluation of TIGGE forecasting

作　　者：陈纾杨[1] 王元[1] 袁慧玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学中尺度灾害性大气教育部重点实验室与大气科学学院,南京210093

出　　处：《气象科学》2013年第4期384-390,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206005);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41175087);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目

摘　　要：利用观测系统研究与可预报性试验的交互式全球大集合系统(TIGGE),对中国夏季南方强降水高影响天气过程,进行了可预报性研究。选取2008年6月中下旬中国南方地区持续性强降雨过程作为典型个例,对TIGGE的天气形势等预报,进行了详细的检验。结果显示,500 hPa上位于中国北部地区的阻塞高压及其西侧的低槽为本次过程的关键系统,对降水过程起到决定性作用。检验结果表明,TIGGE对关键系统的预报,普遍出现强度偏弱位置偏西的问题。ECMWF对500 hPa高度场预报最优,而850 hPa的比湿则是NCEP最佳,但多中心大集合预报则保持较好优势,对各单中心有不同程度的改善作用,而TIGGE对于这类灾害性天气的10 d的预报能力有限。Using the dataset from the observing system research and predictability experiment of In- teractive Grand Global Ensemble （ TIGGE）, this paper studies south China rainstorm--one of the highest impacting weather systems. Selecting the wide-range heavy rainstorm occurred in south China in June 2008 as the typical case of torrential rainstorm, this paper evaluates the weather forecasting situation of TIGGE. Furthermore, several key synoptic systems are analyzed, including the blocking high and the trough at 500 hPa. The evaluation shows that, for the key synoptic systems, in the TIGGE forecasts, sys- tematic errors with regard to the location and intensity are found. Among multi-center forecasts, ECMWF exhibits the best performance in 500 hPa geo-potential height field, while NCEP is superior in specific humidity at 850 hPa. In addition, the muhi-center grand ensemble shows the greater advantage than that of the single centers. Nevertheles TIGGE presents the limited skill in 10 d forecasts and provides minimal importance to guidance.

关 键 词：TIGGE 灾害性暴雨天气 阻高 预报检验 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]